Index Calculation And Empirical Analysis Of Influencing Factors Of International Competitiveness Of China's Tourism Service Trade

According to the Ministry of Commerce's Department of Foreign Trade,the total value of China's foreign trade in 2019 was 31.54 trillion yuan,and the ratio of total trade to GDP for that year was about 31.74%.This shows the importance of foreign trade to my country's economic growth.According to IMF statistics,my country's trade deficit in services was $299.2 billion in 2018,ranking first in the world,and most of it was the trade deficit of tourism services.It can be seen that the international competitiveness of tourism service trade and its influencing factors are topics worth studying.This article first measures the international competitiveness of my country's tourism service trade by using the MS,TC,RCA and NRCA indexes of my country's tourism service trade,and compares it with some tourism powers.Then,a vector autoregressive VAR model of influencing factors of International Competitiveness of China's tourism service trade was constructed.Through impulse response function and variance decomposition,the empirical study of China's consumer confidence index,air passenger traffic,railway passenger traffic,actual use of foreign direct investment and tourism foreign exchange income how to influence China's tourism foreign exchange earnings is constructed.The following basic conclusions are drawn:(1)In recent years,the MS index of China's tourism service trade is below 3%,the TC index is around-0.7,the RCA index is between 0.6 and 0.8,and the NRCA index is between-3.6 and-3.8.China's tourism service trade basically does not have international competitiveness,and it is currently in a relatively disadvantaged position;(2)The biggest factor on China's tourism foreign exchange revenue is tourism foreign exchange revenue itself.It can be said that tourism foreign exchange revenue has strong Autocorrelation;(3)The quantity of civil aviation passenger transport is the factor that has the largest impact on tourism foreign exchange income in addition to tourism foreign exchange income itself.The impact of this variable on the tourism foreign exchange income lasts for a long time,and always maintains a high positive level,which has a great contribution to changes in tourism service trade,up to more than 40%;(4)The consumer confidence index also has a great impact on tourism foreign exchange earnings.The short-term impact is generally positive,but the trend thereafter is negative,and the negative impact is becoming more and more important.The increase of consumer confidence index is not conducive to the increase of my country's tourism income in the long run,and is an important factor of its change;(5)The actual use of foreign direct investment has a small impact on China's tourism foreign exchange income.There is a process of rapidly changing from negative to positive impact.The final trend is that the positive impact is becoming larger and larger.Although the growth is slower,but overall It tends to increase China's tourism foreign exchange income;From the perspective of its contribution to China's tourism foreign exchange income,foreign direct investment is not very important to China's tourism foreign exchange income.