Analysis Of Factors Affecting China's Import Trade Of Bulk Mineral Products Based On Gravity Model

With the arrival of the final stage of China's building a well-off society in an all-round way,China's industrial development is maturing and has entered the middle and late stages.Under the new normal,while maintaining the level of economic development,the growth rate of economic development is gradually slowing down.The consumption of mineral resources by economic development has gradually reached its peak,but the completion of China's industrialization still requires the consumption of a large amount of mineral resources.At this stage,our country attaches great importance to the construction of ecological civilization.The mining and consumption of mineral resources will have an impact on the ecological environment.Therefore,the supply of domestic mineral resources will be restricted to a certain extent.Therefore,the dependence on international trade will gradually increase.The international trade of bulk minerals such as iron,copper and aluminum is affected by many factors.A clear understanding of the influencing factors and extent of bulk mineral trade will provide data support for China's bulk mineral resources trade.China's research on mineral resources trade has been very mature.This article uses the gravitational model theory to construct a gravitational trade model to study the influencing factors of China's bulk mineral import trade.First,use the complex trade network to analyze the current status of bulk mineral trade.At present,the global scale of bulk mineral products trade,trade efficiency,and the degree of globalization of trade are generally on the rise;when my country is trading iron,copper,and aluminum,the central position of trade is on the rise.Secondly,based on the data related to bulk mineral trade from 2010 to 2018,the market variables,economic distance,geographic distance,preferential policies,per capita resource reserves,output and per capita resource consumption of exporting countries were selected as explanatory variables.The trade flow of copper and bauxite mines is the dependent variable,constructing the gravity model of trade,empirically analyzing the influencing factors that affect the import of bulk mineral products in China,and comparing and analyzing different mineral types.The analysis shows that the tradegravity model established in this paper is more suitable for the import trade of bulk mineral products in China;the influencing factors of the exporting country have a more significant impact on the import trade of China's mineral resources;Establish a trade gravity model for different minerals;according to the first step of empirical results,remove the less relevant influencing factors,modify the established trade gravity model,and test whether it fits with the previous bulk mineral import trade value,It is found that the ratio of the theoretical value to the actual value fluctuates around "1",the selected model has a good fit with China's import trade,and the selected country has a trade growth relationship with China.Finally,based on the above research results and considering the influence factors of various indexes,some countermeasures and suggestions are put forward for the import and reserve of bulk mineral products in China.