Study On Risk Assessment Of Urban Infrastructure Projects Under PPP Mode

Driven by the construction of new-type urbanization,the construction of urban infrastructure projects in China has once again set off a new upsurge.Because the capital demand of infrastructure construction increases with the increase of construction scale,the capital demand of project construction simply cannot be met by relying on the investment of the government.PPP(Public Private Partnership)was introduced and used to solve the problems of unmet capital demand and single financing channels.Because the urban infrastructure project under PPP mode has the characteristics of long project cycle,huge investment and numerous participants,it will generate many and complex risks in the implementation process of the project.In order to identify the key risk factors and actively respond to them,reduce the loss caused by the risks and ensure the smooth implementation of the project,it is very necessary to conduct scientific risk assessment on the project.The numerous risk factors in urban infrastructure projects under PPP mode do not present a simple linear relationship,but are interwoven,dependent and feedback,forming a complex network structure.At the same time,the randomness of risk factors is very high,and the degree of risk influence is difficult to be expressed quantitatively,and the fuzziness is very strong.If the particularity of the risk characteristics of urban infrastructure projects under the PPP mode is not fully considered,the result of risk assessment is bound to be inconsistent with the reality.Based on this,in order to improve the shortcomings of previous research methods,this paper proposes to build a Delphi-FANP risk assessment model by organically combining Delphi investigation method,Fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method(FCE),Analytic Network Process(ANP)method with triangular Fuzzy number.The specific research process is as follows:firstly,through literature review,case analysis,field research and questionnaire survey,the risk factors affecting urban infrastructure PPP project are deeply studied,and a risk evaluation index system of urban infrastructure PPP project with 6 first-level indicators and 19 second-level indicators is established.Secondly,the risk evaluation model of Delphi-FANP was established.Firstly,the importance degree of the secondary index was judged by pantwise comparison by Delphi research method.Then,the fuzzy judgment matrix was obtained by integrating expert opinions with triangular fuzzy Numbers,and then the fuzzy super matrix was constructed.In the same way,the first-order index fuzzy component weight matrix can be established and the fuzzy weighted supermatrix can be obtained.The comprehensive weight vector and the comprehensive evaluation result are obtained by calculating the limit ranking,and the influence degree of each risk factor on the overall risk and the risk level of the overall project are obtained.Finally,taking the PPP project of Harbin xx road Underground Pipe Gallery as an example,this paper makes an empirical analysis of Delphi-FANP risk evaluation model and verifies the feasibility of the risk evaluation model.The paper also puts forward the countermeasures of six risk factors:economy,construction,law,politics,operation and market returns.According to the evaluation results to rationalize risk response measures to ensure the smooth operation of the project,improve the application value of this article.This study can achieve the purpose of predicting in advance,effectively controlling and dealing with high impact risks in urban infrastructure PPP projects,ensuring the successful implementation and good operation of the projects,and providing a new perspective for research in related fields.