The Impact Of China-ASEAN Trade Liberalization On Poverty Reduction

Since China's reform and opening up,China has always been committed to poverty reduction.As of 2019,there are only 5.51 million rural poor in China.It has created a 70% contribution rate in global poverty reduction,which is a miracle in the history of international poverty reduction.All this is because for a long time,China has made development and poverty eradication an important goal of its national human rights protection.Especially in 2015,China proposed to achieve the goal of all poverty-stricken people out of poverty by 2020 and carried out an unprecedented scale of poverty reduction actions..However,this does not mean that there will be no poverty in China after 2020,but that it will continue to improve the overall living standards of low-income groups on this basis,from the elimination of quantitative absolute poverty to high-quality poverty alleviation.In the context of the era of global economic integration,the China-ASEAN Free Trade Area has been fully launched,and the bilateral foreign trade volume has increased significantly.In 2019,ASEAN surpassed the United States with a trade volume of 641.5 billion U.S.dollars,historically becoming China's second largest trade The partner,second only to the EU,has become a stabilizer of China's foreign trade.Therefore,the impact of China-ASEAN trade liberalization on China's poverty reduction will be a very worthy research issue,and it will have some reference significance for how to set the basic idea of the national poverty alleviation cause.This paper reviews the domestic and foreign literature on China-ASEAN trade liberalization and poverty reduction,and uses the theory of trade liberalization,balanced growth,and human capital as the theoretical basis to analyze the current status of poverty reduction and the degree of trade liberalization in China.,Scientifically select appropriate indicators to measure the degree of trade liberalization and poverty in each province.Based on the China Statistical Yearbook 2006-2017 and the yearbook statistics of each province,6 coastal provinces and 9 inland provinces were selected for a total of 15 provinces are sampled.Theoretical and empirical analysis are adopted.The per capita disposable income of the lowest income 10% of the population and the low income 10% of the population are used as explanatory variables By examining the interactive terms of the FTA dummy variable and the degree of trade liberalization,the impact of China-ASEAN trade liberalization on poverty reduction is examined in terms of the impact of the interactive terms on the per capita disposable income and share of the poor.First,build a income determination model for the poor.Based on Frankel and Romer's income decision model,this paper selects highway mileage,inflation rate,annual college enrollment,actual economic growth rate,and government expenditure as control variables based on theory and actuality.By introducing FTA dummy variables and the degree of trade liberalization,The interaction term firstly empirically studies the impact of China-ASEAN trade liberalization on the income of the two groups of poor people.The results found that:(1)On the whole,China-ASEAN trade liberalization can significantly increase the income of the bottom and lower-tier poor,and the poverty reduction effect on the lower-tier poor is relatively greater.(2)Sub-regional studies have found that China-ASEAN trade liberalization can significantly increase the income of the bottom and lower-tier poor in coastal areas,but it has no significant effect on the income of the bottom-and lower-tier poor in inland provinces.Second,based on the original model,empirically study the impact of China-ASEAN free trade on the income share of the poor.The results show that:(1)On the whole,China-ASEAN trade liberalization helps increase the per capita disposable income share of the poor at the bottom,and it has no significant impact on the low-level poor,that is,China-ASEAN trade liberalization is conducive to increasing The income share of the poor at the bottom reduces the income gap.(2)As far as zoning is concerned,China-ASEAN trade liberalization can only effectively increase the per capita disposable income share of the bottom poor in the coastal provinces.It has not significantly improved the income share of the low-level poor in the coastal provinces and the poor in the inland provinces.effect.Finally,this paper puts forward the corresponding policy Suggestions from the two aspects of raising the per capita disposable income and share of the minimum income and low-income poor population.