| The real estate industry is not only the pillar industry of the national economy,but also the basic and leading industry of the national economy.The state has introduced land policy,monetary policy,fiscal and tax policy and purchase restriction policy to curb the rapid rise of housing prices.In order to ensure the effectiveness of regulation policies,the real estate market will be affected by all kinds of regulation policies at the same time,and the implementation of combined policies plays a certain role in the real estate market.Accurately grasping the effect and influence degree of each regulation policy on the real estate market is the premise of better using the regulation policy to control the real estate market price.Starting from the study of the influencing factors of the real estate market price,this paper establishes a game model to analyze the behavior of various participants in the real estate market,constructs a system dynamics model of the real estate market,and studies the effect and influence degree of various regulatory policies on the real estate market price.Firstly,the grey relational degree analysis method is used to explore the influencing factors of real estate market price from three perspectives of real estate market demand,supply and economic environment.The demand factor of the real estate market has the highest correlation degree with the price of the real estate market,followed by the supply of the real estate market,and the economic environment factor has the lowest correlation degree with the price of the real estate market.From the perspective of the real estate market demand,supply and economic environment,the development scale index in the supply factor has the highest correlation degree with the real estate market price,while the employment environment index in the demand factor has the lowest correlation degree with the real estate market price.Secondly,it analyzes the action mechanism of various regulation policies,summarizes the historical evolution of the regulation policies,clarifies the participants in the real estate market,and constructs a game model between local government and real estate development enterprises.When the probability of the local government to strictly implement the regulation policy strategy is greater than~*,the real estate development enterprises should strictly abide by the regulation policy in order to avoid huge fines.When the probability of real estate development enterprises complying with the regulation policy is greater than~*,the local government may not strictly implement the regulation policy,which can not only save financial expenditure,but also ensure the smooth implementation of the regulation policy.Then,according to the mechanism of all kinds of regulation policy and the real estate market price influence factors analysis of the influence of construction of macro-control on the real estate market price system dynamics model,on the basis of mapping the causality,complete inventory flow diagram and established the mathematical relationship between the variables,respectively,from 2004 to 2018,2019-2023,the real estate market prices,the real estate market supply and demand has carried on the simulation and prediction,simulation value in the range of relative error.From 2019 to2023,the real estate market prices will continue to increase,but the supply and demand relationship will be stable.Finally,the system dynamics model is used to carry out the simulation experiment of regulation policies,and the effect and influence degree of each regulation policy are analyzed by changing the policy parameters of each regulation policy.In 2019-2023study period,the control parameters under the condition of rose by 10%,the increase in the price of land,land policy lending rates of monetary policy and fiscal policy development rate of increase in the price has a promoting effect on the real estate market,drive the real estate market price regulation value compared with the predicted average annual growth rate of 18.08%,0.77%,1.42%;The expansion of the land supply in the land policy,the increase of the consumption tax rate in the fiscal and tax policy and the increase of the down payment ratio of the second house in the purchase restriction policy have a inhibitory effect on the real estate market price,which leads to the annual growth rate of the real estate market price regulation value is-0.10%,-0.0002%and-1.10%respectively compared with the predicted value.Through the quantitative analysis of the effect and influence degree of various regulatory policies,data support is provided for the government's decision-making under different regulatory objectives,and corresponding improvement suggestions are put forward to promote the effective allocation of market resources and ensure the standardized and rational operation of the real estate market. |
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