Peer evaluation as a predictor of future success

The changing context of work and organizations is impacting in a dramatic way on the structures and functions in the workplace, including methods of employee performance appraisal. The growing interest in multi-rater appraisals and the increased emphasis on groups and teams have prompted much discussion on peer evaluations. Peer evaluation is not a new concept, and it remains somewhat controversial. There are some views that peers are better judges of their fellow workers than are the supervisors who evaluate their performance. These types of assessment have been used for years in the military as measures of program completion or short term success. This study was designed to examine peer evaluation as a predictor of success in the long term.; This study tested the hypothesis that peer evaluations received by cadets at West Point, over twenty-four years ago, related positively to the relative success of the graduates in their careers as officers in the United States Army. Concurrently, peer evaluations were compared with other measures of cadet potential or achievement to see if Peer Evaluations were the best predictors of future success. The other measures were Tactical Officer Ratings, Cadet Rank, General Order of Merit, and Grade Point Average. “Success” was defined in terms of highest grade achieved, highest level of military schooling, and highest level of command.; The data base was drawn from the United States Military Academy Class of 1976. Three hundred and seventy graduates met the criteria for Army career officers used in the study. Career officers were defined as those who remained on active duty beyond the grade of Captain (Majors and above) and who were members of combat, combat support, or combat service support branches. Records of their progress in meeting the various levels of achievement were examined covering the period from 1976 until the year 2000.; Analysis of Variance (ANOVA) was used to compare the independent cadet measures with the career measures of success. Post hoc tests were employed to more narrowly identify significant variances among groups of measurements. The results showed that Peer Evaluation was a positive indicator of career success in all three categories, and that among other cadet measures, it was the strongest predictor.