| With the development of economy and increase of demand,the amount and complexity degree of projects will continue to increase,and the project risks are happening more and more frequently and the types of project risks also become abnormal at the moment.In order to respond to project risks timely and effectively,the team executing the project and project risk manager consider making the compatible project risk response plans before implementing projects,however,the premise of making this plan is to analyze the project risks reasonably.In previous studies,lots of researches have been done by many academics on the method of selecting project risk response strategies,but there still exist some disadvantages for analysing project risks.In particular,there is a large gap in the analysis of project risk relations.On the basis of previous research results,deficiencies and the actual condition of projects,the incidence of risk relations are applyed to the optimization model for selecting project risk response strategies.And from this,it makes choice of project risk response strategies and reach maximizing expected utility of project risk manager in this paper.The main research contents of this paper include the following three aspects.Firstly,analysing relation between project risks by combining MACBETH(Measuring Attractiveness by a Categorical-Based Evaluation Technique)approach with the method of DEMATEL(the Decision Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory).On the stage of project risk response,the key for selecting project risk response strategies is to analyze the project risks,however,project risk analysis have to consider relation analysis between the project risks,which correspond with the actual condition of projects.In this paper,the MACBETH approach analyses the direct relation between project risks and provide the direct-relation matrix for the DEMATEL method,then the total-relation matrix describing total relation between the project risks are obtained through the DEMATEL method.It establishes the foundation for the construction of optimization model for selecting project risk response strategies considering risk relations.Secondly,an optimization model for selecting project risk response strategies is constructed considering project risk relations.In the optimization model considered total relation between project risks for selecting project risk response strategies,it aims to maximize expected utility of project risk manager,and the constraint is the total budget of implementing response strategies,which consider the impact of risk total relations and the overall budget implementing responding strategies for the projects in the selecting response strategies and expected utility of project risk manager.In this model,the risk preference of project risk manager is considered.Whereafter,in the optimization model considered diffierent scenario of project risk relations for selecting project risk response strategies,which focus on the research of the impact adding favorable relation and indirect relation for expected utility of project risk manager.Thirdly,the feasibility and validity of the proposed method and model is illustrated by the potential application.In this paper,the potential application background is a subway five-segment construction project in the G city.It analyzes project risk relations and solves an optimization model considering total relation between project risks for selecting project risk response strategies,and the impact of total relation between project risks and the total budget of implementing response strategies is to conduct sensitivity analysis,the incidence of total relation between projects risks and the total budget of implementing response strategies for influence of selecting project risk response strategies and expected utility of project risk manager is analyzed,as well as adding favorable relations and indirect relations for expected utility of project risk manager is analyzed respectively.The results show that the impact of total relation between projects risks and the total budget of implementing response strategies make a difference for the selecting project risk response strategies and expected utility of project risk manager,and it verifies that considering indirect relations in the process of selecting project risk response strategies is necessary,but considering favorable relations could be neglect.This requires that project risk manager need to pay attention to total relation between projects risks in the process of project risk management.To sum up,in this paper,the method analysing projects risk relations combine the MACBETH approach with the DEMATEL method and the model for selecting project risk response strategies is proposed considering risk relations,which could help project risk manager to select project risk response strategies.In addition,this paper enriches the method of selecting project risk response strategies,and provides reference for further research work. |
