Study On Risk Management And Evasion Of EEDT Project In Mongolia

In September 2013,China proposed a cooperative initiative to build the "New Silk Road Economic Belt" and the "21st Century Maritime Silk Road".In order to integrate into the trend of world economic construction,more and more enterprises have gone abroad.If the overseas projects are completed successfully,the enterprises will not only obtain the new markets and create huge profits,but also provides new ideas for enterprise resource optimization.At the same time,the complicated international situation has posed a great impact on enterprises’ overseas development.Any mistake in the link may cause losses to the project.Whether the foreign projects can be implemented and operated normally is directly related to the performance and profit of the entire company.Therefore,it is necessary to identify,evaluate and avoid management risks for the implementation and management of oversea projects.Firstly,this paper reviews the definition,identification,classification of risk management of overseas projects and the relevant theories of risk evaluation methods.And then it selects the Mongolian EEDT engineering project of the author’s company as the research object.The risk evaluation system is established by AHP(Analytic Hierarchy Process),and the weight coefficient of each risk is calculated.Then the risk value of EEDT project in Mongolia is calculated by Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method.Finally,according to the risk conclusions,the strategies and safeguards for risk aversion of the EEDT project in Mongolia are proposed.Different political and economic environment,social habits and cultural customs in different countries will affect the implementation and management of overseas engineering projects from some certain angles.Through analysis,this paper has identified the external risks of the EEDT project,including political risks,economic risks,social risks,cultural risks and natural risks.At the same time,certain internal conditions of the company will also affect the project,which mainly include technical risk and personnel risk.After the risk of EEDT project is identified,this paper combines the Analytic Hierarchy Process and Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method to calculate the risk intensity of EEDT project.The AHP Analytic Hierarchy Process can be used to determine the weight of each risk from a more objective perspective;then,a Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation index system is constructed,and the fuzzy fitting with the weight matrix is carried out to obtain quantitative evaluation results.The risk weights are graded by AHP,and then calculated.The weight coefficients of seven risks are ranked from high to low: natural risk,technical risk,political risk,personnel risk,economic risk,social risk,and cultural risk.Then the Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation Method is used to calculate the intensity of each risk,and then it is calculated that the overall risk level of the EEDT project is "medium".Among them,natural,technical,political,and human risks are more likely to occur,especially climatic conditions in natural risks,and policy changes in political risks.Our company should take precautions and countermeasures against these risks in advance;the probability of political risks,economic risk and personnel risk occurring is moderate,and our company should take necessary measures to avoid it;the probability of social risk and cultural risk occurring is low,so our company should pay attention continuously as the project progresses.In order to ensure the smooth implementation of the above recommendations,corresponding safeguard measures for the project are proposed at the end.