Theoretical Analysis And Empirical Test Of The Impact Of "Subsidy Reduction" Policy On Vehicle Performance Of New Energy Vehicles

The development of new energy automobile industry is the only way for China to move from an automobile power to an automobile power,and it is also an important strategy for China to accelerate the cultivation and development of strategic emerging industries.Since electric vehicles were listed as national key projects during the ninth Five-Year Plan period,the Chinese government has introduced a series of policies and measures to promote the development of the new energy vehicle industry,among which the most important is the new energy vehicle consumption subsidy.In the development process of more than a decade,the consumption subsidy of new energy vehicles on the one hand promoted the rapid improvement of the production and sales of New energy vehicles in China,on the other hand,the new energy vehicle industry was once plagued by fraud and subsidy incidents due to the inaccurate subsidy design.It is a common practice in developed countries to support emerging industries with subsidies.However,the rapid development of emerging industries often leads to huge subsidy costs.This paper aims to explore the relationship between consumption subsidies of new energy vehicles and vehicle performance and the effectiveness of the implementation of consumption subsidies of new energy vehicles from both theoretical and empirical perspectives by using the policy practice of consumption subsidies reduction of new energy vehicles in China.In the theoretical part,through the establishment of discrete choice model based on the consumers,market equilibrium theory,general equilibrium model of car market,this paper analyzes the new energy automobile consumption equilibrium output and R＆D subsidy for car market,the influence of the firm R＆D investment,and further application of social welfare analysis to study the optimal consumption design and R＆D subsidies.By analyzing the theoretical model,this paper finds that there is an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between consumption subsidies of new energy vehicles and vehicle performance,that is,there is a subsidy threshold.At the same time,this paper also simulates the social optimal consumption subsidy amount and subsidy threshold based on the actual data,and makes a comparative analysis with the change of the actual subsidy amount.The numerical simulation results show that the gap between the actual social subsidy amount and the social optimal subsidy amount is the largest in 2013,but the gap tends to decrease as the year goes by.In addition,the social optimal subsidy will be larger than the subsidy threshold in some years,but the social optimal subsidy will still improve social welfare.In the empirical part,by collecting the ministry released the road motor vehicle manufacturers and product data,this paper uses two-way fixed effects model analysis of the new energy automobile consumption subsidies reduction policy for vehicle manufacturers in the production of new energy vehicles driving performance effect,and by using the incremental double difference regression model empirical results robustness test.The empirical results show that there is indeed an "inverted U-shaped" relationship between consumption subsidies and the preformance of new energy vehicles,and the Chinese government’s subsidy per vehicle for new energy vehicles from 2013 to 2017 is large,which has exceeded the corresponding consumption subsidy threshold that can improve the preformance of new energy vehicles.The new energy vehicle "subsidy reduction" policy also forces vehicle manufacturers to produce new energy vehicles with higher performance to a certain extent,effectively promoting the healthy development of China’s new energy vehicle industry.In view of the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward six policy suggestions as follows: First,The government can further optimize the consumption subsidy design of new energy vehicles by establishing an economic model;Second,the government should gradually cancel the "secondary subsidies" related to consumption subsidies of new energy vehicles by local governments;Third,the government should increase support for the terminal infrastructure construction of new energy vehicles;Fourth,the government should promote the healthy and stable development of the new energy automobile industry through more market-oriented means;Fifth,the government should vigorously promote the positive significance of carbon emission reduction of new energy vehicles to the ecological environment,and promote the application of new energy vehicles in the field of public services;Sixth,The government should gradually establish and improve the incentive system for R＆D activities of upstream component manufacturers of new energy vehicles.