Spatial Measurement And Classification Analysis Of Forest Carbon Sink Demand Based On Industry Emission Reduction

After the industrial revolution,the contradiction between economic and social development and environmental carrying capacity has become increasingly prominent.It has become the focus of global attention to control and reduce the CO₂ content in the atmosphere and avoid the disastrous consequences of climate change.As a convenient and efficient emission reduction measure recognized by the international community,forest carbon sink has been favored by countries all over the world for its irreplaceable advantages.China also takes forest carbon sink as an important measure of emission reduction.In view of this,based on the assumption that all CO₂emissions in China are offset by forest carbon sequestration,this paper studies the forest carbon sink demand space of industrial industries in 29provinces,autonomous regions and cities in China.Based on the input-output data of 29 provinces and cities in China in recent 10 years,the marginal CO₂emission reduction cost of each region in the past 10 years was calculated by the directional distance function model.Then,the potential forest carbon sink demand space of each region in the sample period was measured by using the demand space model,and the relationship between the potential forest carbon sink demand space and the marginal CO₂ emission reduction cost was clarified Cluster analysis and discriminant analysis were carried out for the obtained spatial data.The results show that:（1）in the sample period,there are obvious differences in the marginal emission reduction costs of industrial industries in China,and there is a significant positive correlation with the demand space of forest carbon sink;（2）There are obvious regional fluctuations in the marginal cost of CO₂ emission reduction and the spatial data of forest carbon sink demand.From the clustering results,it can be found that the average marginal cost of CO₂emission reduction in Category 1,2 and 3 is 15900 yuan/ton,11800 yuan/ton and 5100yuan/ton respectively;the average value of forest carbon sink demand space in Category 1,2 and 3 areas is 5.7191 million tons/year,3.7493 million tons/year and 1.7415 million tons/year respectively.Compared with the classification results,the influence of S,m,P and G policy variables on forest carbon sequestration demand space of three types of regions was calculated by formula（3）.Finally,based on the above research results,the paper puts forward some suggestions on the differentiated development of forest carbon sink demand space:（1）the punishment intensity of strict over emission in the eastern region;（2）formulating the corresponding incentive policies and optimizing the carbon quota distribution mode for the central and eastern regions;（4）giving priority to the subsidy policy and supplemented by the appropriate incentive policy for the western region.All these provide valuable reference for promoting the actual demand space of forest carbon sink and the development of future carbon market.