| China has entered the sequence of aging countries in this century.Compared with the urgent demand of the elderly for pension services,the number of beds and service quality in government-run pension institutions are still at a relatively low level.Under this background,China has begun to explore new ways to provide for the aged.The central government has issued relevant policies to encourage all regions to introduce social capital to jointly build pension institutions in order to ease the pressure on the pension market and improve the quality of service.Governments at all levels have actively cooperated with social capital and achieved remarkable results.Many PPP projects for old-age real estate came into being,effectively easing the pressure on local old-age services.However,as this mode is still in the exploratory stage in our country,many problems have been exposed in the process of cooperation,negotiation and construction operation of the project,which hinders the long-term development of the pension service project.The two key influencing factors are the project operation management and the franchise period of the pension real estate PPP project.Whether the project operation management is effective or not directly affects the quality of pension service,which is related to the well-being of the people and the social benefits of the local government.The franchise period of the project affects the relevant profit indicators of social capital participants in pension service projects.The two major factors jointly determine the success or failure of the project.Therefore,this paper aims to explore two questions: What kind of operation management can improve the quality of pension services for the project?What is the reasonable franchise period for PPP projects in pension real estate?This paper is mainly divided into two parts to study related issues:(1)In the aspect of PPP project operation and management of pension real estate,this paper holds that the essence of operation and management is that the project uses service facilities to provide relevant pension services to meet the needs of the elderly,and the products produced by the project are pension services.Therefore,in the research process of operation management,it is necessary to analyze the demand characteristics of the elderly group first,According to the relevant demand characteristics,the project designs suitable aging spatial structure facilities,establishes an operation service team to generate pension services in combination with the needs of elderly customers,and designs a project operation management system of project spatial structure system + project operation service system + project operation evaluation system.(2)In terms of the decision-making of the franchise period of PPP projects for the aged,this paper holds that the traditional fixed term method and NPV method ignore the value changes brought by relevant uncertain factors in the project operation process.The real option theory considering the influence of project flexibility is introduced to judge the option nature of project uncertainties.Based on binary tree model and BSM model,Monte Carlo simulation is used to calculate the real option value.According to the project value = original value + real option value,the franchise period of the project after adding real option is deduced.Finally,in order to verify the validity of the theoretical model,This paper selects typical cases to design the project operation management system combined with the actual situation of the project and relevant economic indicators,calculates the changes of the franchise period after adding relevant real options such as government guarantee,and draws the conclusion that the project operation management system can be designed and the franchise period changes obviously. |
