Research On The Effectiveness Of Encouraging Fertility Policy

Any public policy needs to be tested for effectiveness.Especially the fertility policy of China,which has the largest population in the world.In order to solve many problems caused by the family planning policy,such as the low birth rate and population imbalance.The Chinese government implemented an encouraging and comprehensive liberalization of the two-child birth policy in 2016,but the published data show that the number of newborns has declined year by year in 2016-2019,The ideal fertility rate that we expected has not appeared.Therefore,the implementation of the policy of encouraging fertility needs to be tested.In addition,based on the data of the total fertility rate of representative developed countries to explore the trend of fertility rate under the policy of encouraging fertility.The analysis found that the total fertility rate in these countries has not increased significantly and is still at or below the replacement level.Based on data from 189 countries,we explored changes in the total fertility rate under non-policy factors.Found that the per capital GNP,urbanization rate,and human development index showed a significant negative relationship with the total fertility rate.Under the influence of non-policy factors,the total fertility rate of China and provinces,municipalities and autonomous regions has also shown a downward trend.In short,total fertility is more influenced by non-policy factors.Data on the fertility wishes of urban and rural residents shows that even if the fertility policy is completely liberalized,the number of urban and rural residents planning to have children is only 1.70 and 1.96.The cost and energy required to raise children is an important factor affecting their fertility wishes.The regression analysis using an ordered logistic model found that factors such as years of education,monthly income,happiness in marriage and life,number of family members,and gender preferences have significant effects on the fertility desires of urban and rural residents.For rural residents,the status of foreign exchange in their living villages significantly affects their fertility wishes.While age,number of years of work after 15 years of age,and political identity are not significant.The paper also uses the PADIS-INT population software to predict the future population size and population structure change trend under the low,medium,and high scenarios,and explores whether the imbalance in the population structure can be alleviated.The results show that regardless of the low,medium,and high plans.The proportion of the elderly population aged 60 and over 65 in the total population continues to rise,and will exceed one-third and nearly one-third of the total population by 2050.The development speed is fast and quite serious,and the population imbalance is serious.Based on the current low fertility rate and aging population.Proposes to completely liberalize the fertility policy and return the fertility decision to the public.It also proposes to differentiate the delayed retirement age,long-term care insurance system,and improve the pension insurance system to adapt to aging policy recommendations.