Research On The Influence Of Comprehensive Two-Child Policy On School District Housing Prices

The promulgation of the comprehensive two-child policy aims at alleviating the problems of population aging and large labor gap.It aims to increase population and promote social economy by increasing fertility.However,after the relaxation of the policy,statistical data show that the fertility rate is not as high as expected.In-depth research shows that it may be related to the cost of children education,and school district housing belongs to one kind of education cost.In our country,the principle of near-entry is adopted in compulsory education stage,that is,families who own the residence of a school divided into areas will be eligible for admission to the school.Originally,it is a policy to promote educational equity.However,under the imbalance between supply and demand in the real estate market,the price of housing in school districts is getting higher and higher,which increases the raising cost of children.Under the comprehensive two-child policy,the change of family structure and the improvement of population will inevitably bring about new demands for social public resources and infrastructure.As the common carrier of housing and education resources,school district housing will also be affected to a certain extent.Families ’demand for housing in school districts may increase,which further promotes the rise of housing prices in school districts,leads to the price increase of public education resources,and is not conducive to the normal development of the real estate market.Therefore,it is necessary to study the impact mechanism and degree of policies on housing prices in school districts.Under the background of comprehensive second-child policy and "school District Housing fever",this paper summarizes the educational particularity of school district housing by distinguishing school district housing from other types of education costs.On this basis,based on the theory of family economics,this paper analyses the impact of comprehensive second-child policy on school district housing demand from the perspective of family resource allocation;and from the primary and secondary housing market,it also analyses the impact of comprehensive second-child policy on school housing demand.Under the change of supply and demand,based on the supply-demand price relationship curve,this paper analyzed the change trend of housing prices in school districts under the policy.Finally,using the data of new commercial housing transactions in Wanzhou District of Chongqing from June 2011 to June 2018,this paper makes an empirical analysis by using the econometric model,and shows the degree of demand for high-quality educational resources under the policy through the impact of the policy on the prices of different grades of school districts,so as to provide countermeasures and suggestions for the adjustment and control of housing prices and educational reform in China.Through theoretical analysis and quantitative verification,this paper draws the following conclusions:(1)The comprehensive second child increases the demand for school district housing.As a kind of educational resources,school district housing has the characteristics of sharing among children and one-time investment for families.For families without school district housing,having two children will bring about the redistribution of resources.To some extent,purchasing school district housing can guarantee the quality of one child’s education,save the investment time of education,and increase the time resources that can be invested in two children.The demand for housing in this school district has increased under the influence of the policy;(2)The comprehensive two-child policy has reduced the supply of housing in the school district.For families who already have school districts,the retention of school districts can guarantee the school education for their second child,thus delaying the plan to sell school districts;while new commercial housing has a certain development cycle,land supply needs to follow urban planning,the supply of first-hand housing will not be affected by the policy,so the comprehensive two-child policy reduces the overall supply of school districts.(3)The comprehensive two-child policy promotes the overall supply of school districts.School district housing prices have risen.The comprehensive two-child policy increases the demand for housing in school districts and reduces the supply of housing in school districts.According to the theory of supply-demand relationship,it is concluded that the policy promotes the rise of housing prices in school districts.By analyzing the data of housing transactions in Wanzhou urban area during the past five years,it is found that compared with ordinary housing,the comprehensive two-child policy has a direct effect on the price of housing in key school districts.The higher the grade,the greater the increase.Compared with the residential buildings corresponding to ordinary primary schools,the price of key primary school districts has increased by 414.2 yuan/m2,and the price of key primary school districts has increased by 406.9 yuan/m2.Compared with the corresponding residential buildings of ordinary secondary schools,the price of key school districts has increased by 344.1 yuan/m2 and the price of key school districts has increased by 613.2 yuan/m2.By comparing the difference of housing growth among different levels of secondary schools,it can be seen that with the improvement of educational resources level,the willingness of families to pay for housing at this level has also increased.Based on the above conclusions,the following suggestions are put forward:(1)Encouraging the development of high-quality private education,reducing the demand for school district housing.The government should provide policy support to private schools,improves their recognition,reduces the dependence of family on public schools,and reduces the demand for housing in school districts.(2)Increase the supply of housing in school districts to meet the needs of the comprehensive two-child policy,including improving the teaching level of general schools,building new high-quality schools.(3)Optimize school conditions,pay attention to balanced distribution,and achieve equalization of educational resources.