Prediction Of The Supply,Demand And Gap Of Early Childhood Education,Children’s Medical Care And Housing In Jiangxi Province

In 2015,at the Fifth Plenary Session of the 18 th Central Committee of the Communist Party of China,the decision was made to "fully implement that a couple can have two children".The adjustment of the childbirth policy had resulted in a rapid increase in the number of children in the short term.The closely related problems of early childhood education,children’s medical care,and per capita housing supply are particularly prominent,especially in Jiangxi,where education,medical care,and the economy are underdeveloped.In order to study the impact of demographic changes on the preschool education,children’s medical care and housing supply in Jiangxi Province under the“comprehensive two-child” policy,the thesis first took the number of kindergarten faculty and staff,the number of nurses,the average building area per student,and the total investment in kindergarten education as a percentage of GDP as the representative variables to measure early childhood education.The number of practicing pediatric(assistant)physicians per 1,000 children,the number of beds per1,000 children,and the number of children’s hospitals were used as representative variables to measure children’s medical care,and the housing area per capita was used as a representative variable to measure housing.Using PADIS-INT population forecasting software and grey forecasting GM(1,1)model to predict the impact of population changes in Jiangxi Province from 2019 to 2021 on the supply and demand of the above-mentioned representative variables under the low,medium and high fertility levels.The results showed that the early childhood education resources in Jiangxi Province will be eased and relatively optimistic in the next few years,children’s medical resources will still be very scarce,and housing resources will become increasingly tight.The specific conclusions are as follows.(1)Supply and demand and gaps in early childhood education resources.In the next three years,the number of children aged 3-6 in Jiangxi Province will decrease year by year,and the demand for early childhood education resources will also decrease year by year.The gaps between faculty and staff,nurses,construction area per student,and education expenditure as a percentage of GDP will decrease year by year.Although the supply of the four representative variables has increased year by year,there are gaps.(2)Supply,demand and gaps of children’s medical resources.The total number of children at low fertility levels are decreasing year by year,and the demand for children’s medical resources is also decreasing year by year.The total number of children with middle and high fertility levels are increasing year by year,and the demand for children’s medical resources is also increasing year by year.The supply of pediatricians and beds is increasing year by year.Under the three fertility levels,the growth rate on the supply side is greater than the growth rate on the demand side,so the shortage is decreasing year by year,but the higher the fertility level,the larger the shortage.The number of children’s hospitals has always been 1,and the shortage is 6.(3)Supply and demand and gaps in housing resources.The total population of the three fertility levels are increasing year by year.The higher the fertility level,the more the total number of people.Therefore,the demand for the total housing area also increases year by year and the higher the fertility level,the greater the demand.But the supply side is decreasing year by year.The average housing area per capita is decreasing year by year,and the higher the fertility level,the more the per capita housing area decreases.