| In recent years,the steady progress of domestic urbanization has intensified the phenomenon of population mobility.While promoting the urban industrial upgrading,it will also lead to the increase of urban housing demand,which may cause the rapid rise of housing prices,which is not conducive to the implementation of the relevant policy requirements of "housing are for living,not for speculation".The change of population size and population structure brought by population flow will have an important impact on the demand for urban housing,and then affect the development trend of urban housing price.How to manage the urban floating population and housing price is crucial to the high-quality development of the city.Therefore,it is necessary to explore how population flow affects urban commodity housing prices and put forward corresponding policy suggestions.On the basis of population migration theory and housing market supply and demand theory,combined with existing literature research,this paper firstly makes an in-depth analysis on the mechanism of how population flow affects urban commercia l housing prices theoretically.On the one hand,The scale of population flow can affect the price of urban commercial housing through direct effect,indirect effect,agglomeration effect and external effect.On the other hand,population flow will lead to changes in the structural characteristics of the urban floating population,that is,changes in the gender structure,age structure,employment structure and education structure of the population flow,which will affect the price of urban commercia l housing.Then the corresponding research hypothesis is proposed based on theoretical analysis.Furtherly,taking the data of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China from2011 to 2017 as an example,this paper empirically analyzes the impact of population flow on urban commodity housing prices.The data analysis results show that: Firstly,taking the total sample of 35 large and medium-sized cities as an example,it is found that the population inflow,the proportion of male floating population,the proportion of labor force,the proportion of higher education personnel,the proportion of secondary industry employment and the proportion of tertiary industry employment and other indicators can significantly promote the price of urban commercial housing.Secondly,after dividing the cities into eastern,central and western regions,it is found that in the eastern region,the scale of population flow,the proportion of floating population in male,the proportion of labor force,the proportion of higher education personnel,the proportion of secondary industry employment personnel and the proportion of tertiary industry employment personnel can significantly promote the price of urban commercial housing.In the central region,only the structure of population flow has a significant effect on the price of urban commercial housing,while the size of floating population has no significant effect on the price of urban commercial housing.In the western region,the proportion of labor force and higher education personnel has a significant promoting effect on the price of urban commercial housing,while the other indicators do not have a significant effect on the price of urban commercial housing.Finally,combined with the empirical data analysis results,respectively from the implementation of city policy differentiation guidance,guide the reasonable flow of population,the establishment of a diversified housing security system and other aspects,put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.The research can provide some reference for large and medium-sized cities to formulate floating population management policies and commercial residential housing regulation policies. |
