The Influence Of Demographic Dividend To Economic Development Under The Structural Transformation In Fujian Province

Population is one of the important factors which affect economic growth, of which the influence of the population age structure change to economic growth arouses scholars’study enthusiasm in recent years. This paper will also explore the relationship between them from the perspective of Fujian Province. In the process of demographic transition, there will be a period when is beneficial to the development of economy. During this period, the proportion of working-age population is high which leads to a sufficient labor supply and a low social raising burden. The strong promotion of population age structure to economic growth is known as the demographic dividend.Demographic dividend is one of the reasons why the east Asian economic miracle occurs, and it is also one of the forces that driving the rapid economy development of Fujian Province in recent years,so studying the relationship between economic growth and demographic dividend has an important theory value and practical significance.Based on the theory of demographic dividend, this paper firstly analyzes the demographic transition process of Fujian Province, such as population birth rate、 mortality、 natural growth rate change、 population age structure change and the dependency ratio change etc, and it is concluded that the demographic dividend period in Fujian Province began in2000and Fujian is currently in the golden age of demographic dividend. Then, using LESLIE model and Matlab software, the author predicts the population of all ages in2015-2050and comes to a conclusion that Fujian demographic dividend will end in about2030. Considering Fujian belongs to net ingoing population province in recent years, the influx of working age population can make the demographic dividend period extend5-10years. Secondly, in this paper, the influence mechanism of population age structure change to economic growth is carried on the theoretical research and empirical analysis. The author analyses the influence degree of demographic dividend to economic growth by the conduction mechanism of labor supply、 human capital、 savings and consumption, etc. In addition, this anthor uses the contribution of demographic dividend to economic growth model to measure the demographic dividend contribution rate of all provinces in China and all cities in Fujian Province. The paper also has a cluster analysis about nationwide demographic dividend situation based on the dependency ratio index and has a principal component analysis about the economic development of every city in Fujian Province. It is concluded that the demographic dividend level of Fujian Province is higher than the national average and it’s in a relatively leading echelon, but the regional economic development and the demographic dividend in Fujian are unbalanced. Finally, based on the perspective of demographic dividend, the author points out the obstacles and challenges faced by the population dividend in Fujian Province, and puts forward some advices about using demographic dividend sufficiently and preventing the gradually fade of demographic dividend.