Research On The Prediction Of School-age Population And The Demand Of Educational Resources In Compulsory Education In China

With the development of science and technology,the competition between countries is becoming more and more intense.In the final analysis,the competition between countries is mainly talent;the cultivation of talent mainly rely on education;compulsory education is the basis of education.Education and population has always been one of the practical issues,and educational resource planning and layout and school-age population changes have a great internal relationship,changes in school age population of educational resources planning and layout more command.With the extensive implementation of the policy of "comprehensive two children",the age structure of China's population will inevitably change greatly.The age structure,quantity and trend of the school age population in compulsory educational schools need to be explored,and the allocation of compulsory educational resources is more difficult.Therefore,it is of great significance to do a good job in predicting the change of school age population.This paper analyzes the current situation of compulsory educational resources in China,and clarifies the effect of school-age population changes on educational resources.Then the population model based on the system dynamics is established,and the parameters in the population model are set according to the influence of the relevant policy factors in the future.According to the total fertility rate,the three schemes are divided into high and low.On the Anylogic simulation platform,the simulation results of the two-year-old volunteer population are simulated,and the simulation results of high,medium and low are obtained,and the prediction results are compared and analyzed.On this basis,combined with some relevant policy standards and the actual situation,the compulsory education stage of teachers,education funding,the number of schools,school buildings,library collection and other basic educational resources needs to predict and analyze.Finally,according to the current situation of compulsory education in China and the results of the comparison,to elaborate China's next 20 years,the development of compulsory education may need to face the problems and challenges.The study found that based on the change of policy,the next two decades,the national compulsory education school-age population has not always been in a rising state,the effect of "comprehensive two children" policy effect is time-limited,the demand for compulsory education resources is not immutable;in terms of teachers,not only focus on The number of teachers,but also to focus on quality;co-ordinate the balanced development of education in all regions of East,Central and West,should rationally expand the compulsory education resources,rational distribution of educational institutions.