Aging Of Population Age Structure,Labor Migration And Robot Replacement

At present,there are certain regional differences in the aging degree of China’s population age structure.The aging degree of the population age structure in the first tier cities is higher than that in the second and third tier cities,and the aging degree of the population age structure in the eastern region is higher than that in the central and western regions.This difference may have varying degrees of impact on the supply of labor force in different regions.Theoretically,when the labor supply in a region decreases,on the one hand,it may lead to more machine replacement in the region.Acemoglu and Restrepo（2018）found through theoretical analysis and Research on the current situation of the United States that the aging population age structure will increase the use of local industrial robots,so as to make up for the reduction of local labor supply;On the other hand,according to the supply and demand theory of labor factor market,the reduction of labor supply in a region may not promote the local use of more robots,but attract labor from other regions to the region by increasing the local wage level,so as to make up for the reduction of labor supply in the region.What is the relationship between China’s aging population age structure,machine replacement and labor magration? It needs to be studied and analyzed in combination with China’s reality.Based on the micro data of 2000-2015 census and sampling survey,this paper first analyzes the characteristics and trend of aging population age structure and floating labor force in China from 2000 to2015,and grasps their actual situation and development trend.Secondly,it focuses on the relationship between the aging of population age structure,labor magration and machine replacement.This study shows that:First,while other factors such as the level of economic development remain unchanged,the aging of the population age structure in a region of China does not accelerate the machine replacement in that region.The reason is that the aging of the local population age structure promotes the rise of the local wage level,and then attracts labor from other regions,especially rural areas,to this region,To supplement the reduction of labor supply caused by the aging of population age structure in the region.Second,based on the manual work report of China’s provincial government and using the method of text analysis,it is found that the encouraging policies of local governments have significantly accelerated the application and promotion of industrial robots in China.This means that at least at the current stage,the government’s encouraging policies（rather than the aging population age structure）are an important factor in promoting the application and promotion of industrial robots in China.