Research On Carbon Emissions Of Energy Consumption In Shandong Based On The Extended STIRPAT-GDIM Model

With the increasing global greenhouse effect,the issue of carbon emissions has become the focus of various organizations,governments and scholars at home and abroad.While COVID-19 has indeed reduced carbon emissions in the short term,in the long term it is bound to lead to a surge in global emissions as countries continue to take steps to stimulate economic recovery.China’s carbon emissions rank first in the world.China has put forward the carbon emission reduction goal of "striving to achieve carbon peak by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060".Facing the unprecedented pressure of emission reduction,China has put forward the call to promote the orderly peak of local carbon emissions,and assign carbon emission reduction goals to provinces for implementation.There are great differences in the current situation of economic and social development,energy consumption and carbon emissions of each provinces,so it is exceedingly vital to explore energy-saving and emission reduction strategies suitable for the local areas.Shandong Province is a big carbon emission province in China,with huge potential for emission reduction.Effective control of its carbon emissions has important practical significance and long-term strategic significance for China to achieve the double-carbon goal as schedule.Therefore,it is of great theoretical value and practical significance to study the current situation and influencing factors of carbon emissions in Shandong Province,predict its carbon emissions in the next few years,and then put forward scientific and reasonable carbon emission reduction policy suggestions for China’s carbon emission reduction and sustainable development.The paper constructs a carbon emission accounting model to predict the carbon emissions of energy consumption in Shandong Province under three different scenarios.First,the paper collects the data of Shandong province over the years,analyzes the current situation of economic and social development,energy consumption and carbon emissions in Shandong province,and paves the way for the follow-up research.Next,the GDIM model is constructed to decompose the factors affecting carbon emissions and clarify their influence degree.Ridge regression method is introduced to establish an extended STIRPAT model to establish the relationship between carbon emissions and its independent variables,and the carbon emission prediction equation is obtained,and the fitting effect is tested.Then,considering the actual situation of Shandong province,the paper sets the development scenarios for each influencing factor,reasonably calculates the carbon emissions under each scenario on the basis of passing the fitting effect test,and carries out comparative analysis of the same scenario and cross scenario.At last,according to the forecast results,the paper puts forward differentiated policy suggestions suitable for Shandong Province,which provides a certain theoretical basis for Shandong Province to formulate carbon emission reduction policies,and also provides reference for other provinces to work on energy conservation and emission reduction.