The Temporal-spatial Variation And Differentiated Regulation Of The Vulnerability Of Rural Regional System In Chongqing

Rural regional system is a rural spatial system with certain structure,function and inter-regional connection,which is composed of humanities,economy,resources and environment.It is an important research object of urban-rural integration and rural vitalization in the new era.In response to the increasingly severe rural problems and the realistic contradiction of the unbalanced development between urban and rural areas,such as the rapid de-agriculturalization of factors of production and environmental pollution,China has issued the No.1 Central Document to guide the work of“agriculture,rural areas and farmers”over the past 18 years,implemented strategic policies of targeted poverty alleviation and rural vitalization,with the aim of working quickly to improve the issues relating to agriculture,rural areas,and farmers and solving the problem of sustainable development of rural regional systems and urban-rural integrated development.As an internal attribute of the rural area system,vulnerability can measure the degree of damage to the system caused by adverse effects.It is a key analysis tool for the sustainable development of the rural regional system.Therefore,carrying out research on the vulnerability of the rural regional system,scientifically measuring the degree of negative impact of the system,understanding the temporal-spatial variation characteristics and obstacle factors of the system vulnerability,and dividing regions of different types of vulnerabilities to propose differentiated regulation strategies,which has important theoretical and practical significance in promoting agricultural modernization,exploring the path towards rural sustainable development,reducing the gap between urban and rural areas,and serving to support the strategy of rural vitalization.This thesis takes 37 districts and counties in Chongqing as the object of study.Based on the summary of related research,the concept and meaning of the rural regional system are clarified.Based on the VSD model,vulnerability evaluation index system of rural regional system with subsystems of exposure,sensitivity and adaptability is constructed,measurement of the vulnerability of the rural regional system in all districts and counties of Chongqing from 2008 to 2018 is carried out;The methodology of mathematical statistics and spatial analysis is used in describing the characteristics of temporal-spatial evolution and spatial association pattern of the rural regional system vulnerability in Chongqing,and different factors of regional vulnerability is initially discussed;then the obstacle model is used to diagnose the obstacle factors and degree of the rural regional system vulnerability of the research unit,and the methodology of dominant element detection is used to further clarify the dominant obstacle elements and auxiliary obstacle elements of the vulnerability of the rural regional system;Finally,based on the above research results,the natural economic conditions of the districts and counties,rural development positioning and other factors,a comprehensive classification in combine of quantitative and qualitative towards the vulnerability of the rural regional system is carried out,and targeted control strategies are proposed according to different types of vulnerability.The main research conclusions of this thesis are as below:(1)The overall trend of vulnerability of rural regional system in Chongqing has been declining year by year.From the perspective of subsystems,exposure declined first and then increased,sensitivity declined steadily,and adaptability increased continuously;the order of the variation of dynamic range was adaptability>exposure>sensitivity.From a regional perspective,affected by factors such as natural resources,social economy,and policy positioning,the districts and counties with higher vulnerability of the rural regional system in Chongqing are mainly located in zone III(northeast Chongqing),and the districts and counties with lower vulnerability are mainly located In zone I(main urban area),zone II(western Chongqing)and zone IV(southeast Chongqing).From the perspective of districts and counties,there are significant differences in the vulnerability variation of the rural regional system of each district and county.The areas of high vulnerability show the transformation from a"human"-shaped structure to a"two-pole"spatial structure,and the areas of high subsystem exposure show a“oblique line”distribution characteristic,the areas of high sensitivity show the transformation from the“dual-core”spatial structure to the“three-core”spatial structure,and the overall adaptability index shows a characteristic of“high in the west and low in the east”.(2)From 2008 to 2018,the vulnerability of rural regional system in Chongqing all showed a positive spatial correlation,and there was an obvious spatial agglomeration effect.Among them,areas of high-value agglomeration with vulnerability are mainly distributed in zone III(northeast Chongqing),showing a trend of shrinking,and areas of low-value agglomeration with vulnerability are distributed in zone II(western Chongqing),showing a trend of spreading westward.Yongchuan district is an isolated area with high vulnerability while Wuxi county is an isolated area with low vulnerability.In terms of subsystems,exposure,sensitivity,and adaptability during the study also showed an obvious positive spatial correlation.Areas of high-value agglomeration with exposure are mainly distributed in zone I(main urban area),showing a trend of shrinking all around to the center.Areas of high-value agglomeration are mainly distributed in zone IV(southeast Chongqing)and zone II(western Chongqing),shifting to the west while the scope is reduced;areas of high-value agglomeration with sensitivity are mainly distributed in zone I(main urban area),with a tendency of shifting to the north,and areas of high-value agglomeration are distributed in zone IV(southeast Chongqing),showing a spreading trend;areas of high-value agglomeration with adaptability are distributed in Zone I(western Chongqing)and Zone II(western Chongqing),and gradually shifted to the north.Areas of low-value agglomeration are mainly distributed in zone III(northeast Chongqing)and zone IV(southeast Chongqing),showing a trend of continuous expansion,and Jiangjin district is a stable and isolated area with low adaptability.(3)The degree of exposure obstacle and sensitivity obstacle of rural regional system in Chongqing showed an overall increasing trend,and the degree of adaptability obstacle showed a continuous declining trend.The order of the total degree of obstacle was adaptability(117.17%)>sensitivity(111.16%)>exposure(71.67%).The basic number of districts and counties with exposure as the main obstacle to the rural regional system remains unchanged,the number of districts and counties with sensitivity as the main obstacle has steadily increased,and the number of districts and counties with adaptability as the main obstacle has continued to decline,but it is still the main obstacle to the vulnerability of the rural regional system in most districts and counties.In terms of obstacle factors,the main obstacle factors in each district and county are becoming more and more diversified,with an increase from 5 types to 7 types.The obstacle factors under sensitivity have become the main obstacle factors in most districts and counties.Among them,the primary obstacle factors in zone I(main city area)and zone II(western Chongqing)have changed from per capita water resources in rural area(X₉)representing sensitivity to the soil erosion rate(X₇)and per unit area yield representing sensitivity(X₁₁);the primary obstacles in zone III(northeast Chongqing)and zone IV(southeast Chongqing)have respectively transformed from per capita disposable income of rural residents(X₁₄)representing adaptability and the number of health technicians per 10,000 in rural areas(X₁₇)into per unit area yield(X₁₁)representing sensitivity and fertilizer use intensity(X₅)representing exposure.(4)A combination of quantitative and qualitative methodology is used to comprehensively classify the types of vulnerability of rural regional system in Chongqing,not only can avoid subjective arbitrariness,but also examine the unquantifiable impact factors in the complex coupling system,so as to achieve both,and makes the target type of vulnerability classification more scientific and targeted.According to the principles and methods of classification,37 districts and counties in Chongqing are divided into 4 types of vulnerability of rural regional system:exposure-sensitive type,sensitive-adaptive type,exposure-adaptive type,and adaptive type.According to the idea of“green development-classification regulation-overall implementation”,this thesis proposes differentiated vulnerability reduction strategies for different types of vulnerability,in order to resolve the contradiction between urban and rural areas and achieve sustainable rural development.