Research On The Spatio-temporal Evolution Of The Relationship Between China's Population Structure And Economic Growth Based On The Adjustment Of Fertility Policy

There is an inseparable internal connection between population and economic development.Correctly handling the relationship between population and economic development and achieving the coordinated development of population and economy is a necessary prerequisite for ensuring the sustained and healthy development of the entire economy and society.Since the 10 s of this century,China's population and economy have entered a “new normal”,with the main characteristics being the ageing of the population and a slowdown in economic development.The mismatch between the two “new normal” fully indicates that China's population structure and economic growth has not fully achieved long-term,high-level coordinated development.At the same time,the party and the state always regard the adjustment of the birth policy as an important means to promote the coordinated development of population structure and economic growth.It can be seen that studying the relationship between China's population structure and economic growth under adjustment of the fertility policy will help to explore the reasons that restrict the optimization of population structure,sustainable economic growth and more coordinated development of population and economy,then comprehensively promote the high quality of China's economic and social development,the sustainable development.Based on this,this article first combines the fertility policy adjustment process and the analysis results of the natural population growth rate to determine the time range for different fertility policies to take effect,and then focuses on the spatio-temporal evolution law of population structure,economic growth and the coupling relationship between the two based on the adjustment of fertility policy.The follow-up empirical research part mainly includes the following three levels.Firstly,in view of all aspects of the economic growth and the population structure,this paper selects representative index,and visually analyze them according to dimensions and stages,then sums up the spatio-temporal evolution law of various characteristics.Secondly,this paper evaluates the level of population structure and economic growth of the country and 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan from 2005 to 2019 by the establishment of an indicator system,after that analyzes the spatio-temporal evolution law of the above evaluation results of the whole time and within the time of different fertility policies.Thirdly,this paper uses the two-system coupling analysis to measure the country and 31 provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities directly under the Central Government)excluding Hong Kong,Macao and Taiwan from 2005 to 2019 the degree of coordinated development of population structure and economic growth,the comprehensive application of visualization analysis,trend extrapolation,spatial autocorrelation analysis and other methods to explore its spatio-temporal evolution law of the whole time and within the time of different fertility policies.The research results show that with the adjustment and change of the fertility policy,China's population structure,economic growth and the coupling relationship between the two are improving in time and space,indicating that the adjustment direction of the fertility policy is correct and reasonable.However,various problems still emerged in the process of changing the birth policy from the “family planning” policy to the “the two children” policy.As far as the population structure is concerned,China's population structure of sex and family tends to be unbalanced,the aging of the population continues to deepen,and the spatial differences in the population structure of sex,age,family and employment are expanding.In terms of economic growth,the growth rate has slowed down and the spatial differences in growth rates between different provinces(autonomous regions and municipalities)have widened.As far as the coupling relationship between the population structure and economic growth is concerned,no province(autonomous region or municipality directly under the Central Government)can promote the improvement of the coordinated development of the population structure and economic growth in the surrounding area in the long term.Finally,it is important to pay attention to the fact that the “inflection point” of the deterioration of the spatio-temporal development trend of the coupling relationship between China country's population structure and economic growth has come.Therefore,it is urgent to accelerate the implementation and effect of “encouraging three children” birth policy in order to achieve long-term high-level coordinated development of population structure and economic growth.