Conflict Analysis Methods For Military Strategic Game Based On Hypergame

Military strategic game is a dynamic evolution process involving repeated games and strategy interactions among two or more parties.It is essentially antagonistic with typical characteristics such as strategic,uncertain and interactive.The mentioned characteris-tics determine that the game confrontation will be full of objective war fog or subjective intelligence deception,where information cannot be retrieved accurately and quantified precisely.Given the problems and practical needs of military strategic game analysis,that studying the evolution process and solutions of military strategic game,and investi-gating the impact of subjective cognitive inconsistency on military strategy,can provide an effective support to predict the situation of future strategic game and assist decision-making evaluation.In addition,actively creating an advantageous situation and take the dominance of military strategic game through information induction and measures devel-opment is an important way to tackle with the strategic game and military confrontation between the great powers in the future.Given the intense strategic game situation nowadays and urgent practical needs,this paper mainly focuses on the difficulty of information quantification and the inconsistency of subjective cognition in military strategic game.centering on the objectives of scientific modeling of military strategic game,forward prediction investigation and reverse shaping of the situation,this paper proposes a conflict analysis method for military strategic game based on hypergame,which mainly solves the following three problems.What is the definition of military strategic game and how to perform conflict analysis on military strategic game? How to develop,the possible development results and evolution process of the military strategic game when there is subjective cognitive inconsistency? and,How to actively shape the situation and realize the strategic attempt in the process of military strategic game by effectively changing the elements of the game? The main contents of the paper are listed as follows:According to the typical characteristics of military strategic game and analysis need,we propose a systematic research framework for military strategic game.By defining and analyzing the military strategic game,the framework summarizes the typical character-istics of military strategic game.We combine the framework of conflict analysis graph model with hypergame theory to model and analyze the military strategic game,and pro-pose the analysis procedure of military strategic game based on ”Conflict Modeling -Forward Analysis - Inverse Analysis” process.In order to address with the inconsistent subjective cognition,a positive conflict analysis method for military strategic game is proposed based on hypergame model to describe the subjective cognition of players.Then we innovatively propose a concept named situation shift tendency which describe the objective ability and subjective moti-vation of game players to implement situation shift in military strategic game,and design a method for equilibrium situation analysis and evolution path analysis based on situation shift tendency.The proposed method provides a scientific way to effectively analyze and predict the strategies interaction process and the final results of military strategic game,meanwhile considers the information cognitive modification based on actions in the game process.A inverse analysis method for military strategic game based on hypergame is pro-posed to fulfill the need for actively shaping the situation.Considering the utility of pref-erences cognition and the cost and reality difficulty of changing the cognition,based on the momentum transfer tendency to realize stable evolution path is feasible and the de-sired situation,we put forward a reverse analysis model for military strategic game based on the minimum adjustment costs,which can be seen as a scientific and effective model for solving the optimal preference cognitive adjustment solution that realizes the expected strategic state.It also validates the practical utility and value of reverse analysis method.We provide a complete demonstration on the modeling and analysis process of mil-itary strategic game using the method mentioned above.Based on the game elements defined by the canonical modeling,we build the corresponding hypergame model,then we utilize the proposed positive conflict analysis method to predict the possible interac-tion processes and game solutions,and the optimal preference adjustment scheme for the game side to reach the expected strategic state is calculated based on the proposed reverse conflict analysis method.The application of the proposed method are shown in detail and the experimental results verify the feasibility of proposed methods.