Research On The Impact Of Carbon Reduction Constraints On The Export Trade Of China’s Steel Industry

Since the 1990s,the problem of global warming caused by the increase in carbon emissions has attracted great global attention.Countries have reached a consensus on reducing carbon emissions,and signed a series of treaties such as the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change,the Kyoto Protocol,and the Paris Agreement,which encourages countries to reduce emissions independently.As the world’s largest developing country,in order to cope with global climate change,China has repeatedly made public commitments to reduce emissions,reflecting the responsibility of a major country.In September2020,General Secretary Xi Jinping made a"double carbon"commitment at the United Nations General Assembly.The steel industry is not only an important foundation for economic development,but also a key source of CO₂ emissions,and the pressure is huge in the face of the"relative"and"absolute"constraints on the total amount and intensity of the"double carbon"target.This thesis uses theories such as environmental cost internalization and the"Porter hypothesis"to analyze the impact path of carbon emission reduction constraints on export trade.According to the polluter payment principle of the theory of environmental cost internalization,it can be seen that carbon emissions reduction constraints will lead to an increase in the price of export products of enterprises,so that their products lose their cost leadership in the fierce international market competition,and ultimately inhibit the export of enterprises.According to the"Porter hypothesis",moderate carbon emission reduction constraints can stimulate the"innovation promotion effect",that is,to stimulate enterprises to improve their innovation capabilities and production technologies,so that the income is increased enough to compensate for the increase in production costs.Therefore,in the short term,the increase in the cost of carbon emission reduction constraints will significantly reduce the scale of China’s steel product export trade;in the long run,according to the principle of the"Porter hypothesis",carbon emission reduction constraints will force enterprises to innovate production processes and emission reduction technologies,that is,produce technological innovation effects,thereby promoting the export trade of China’s steel products.Based on the theoretical research,this thesis selects the data of 28 provinces from 2006 to2019 as a sample,and uses a fixed-effect model to analyze the impact of carbon emission reduction constraints on China’s steel export trade.The study found that carbon emission reduction constraints have a significant negative correlation effect on China’s steel exports.This is due to the fact that after the implementation of carbon emission reduction constraints,in the short term,the environmental costs of Chinese steel companies will rise,while the supply capacity will decline,which will lead to an increase in the price of export products,which in turn will affect the international market demand for products and lead to a decrease in trade volume.However,from the perspective of long-term development,through the optimization and upgrading of product production processes,technological innovation can be carried out under the condition of limited carbon emissions,so as to achieve cost savings and improve international competitiveness.Among other indicators affecting the export trade of China’s steel industry,human capital investment,infrastructure level and regional per capita GDP all have a role in promoting the export of steel products,while the level of physical capital investment and technological innovation has no significant role in promoting,which is mainly due to the fact that a new technology takes a certain amount of time from the beginning of research and development to industrialization,that is,there is a certain time lag.Based on the above research conclusions,this thesis puts forward suggestions for promoting the low-carbon transformation of the steel industry,accelerating the research and development of low-carbon technology innovation,optimizing the energy consumption structure,and promoting the rational layout of the steel industry.