Research On Bilateral Trade Potential Under The Background Of China-Laos Railway Opening

China and Laos are both Asian countries.Since ancient times,the political,economic and cultural exchanges between them have not stopped,which makes the import and export trade between China and Laos closer.Since the beginning of the 21 st century,China and Laos have witnessed more frequent exchanges of talents in political,economic and trade cooperation.The most outstanding achievements have been made in foreign trade.China has become the second largest trading partner of Laos.Due to differences in resource endowment,infrastructure and economic strength,China and Laos have obvious comparative advantages.In recent years,import and export trade between the two countries has played an important role in economic growth.With the promotion of global economic integration and the Belt and Road Initiative,as well as the opening and operation of the China-Laos railway in 2021,the import and export trade between China and Laos has great prospects.Therefore,this paper believes that it is particularly important to study the import and export trade potential between China and Laos.Through quantitative analysis and research,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions can be put forward to better play the advantages and potential of the import and export trade between China and Laos,so as to promote the development and prosperity of the bilateral economy.Therefore,this paper first makes an in-depth analysis of the current situation of import and export trade between China and Laos,then establishes a trade gravity model to verify the impact of infrastructure construction represented by railway on the import and export trade between the two countries,calculates the trade potential,and puts forward countermeasures and suggestions conducive to better and faster development of bilateral trade between China and Laos.The main research includes the following aspects:First,this paper explains the relevant theoretical basis,including comparative advantage theory,international division of labor theory and competitive advantage theory.Secondly,through literature review and analysis of the research status of trade potential,China-Laos railway and trade,it comes to the conclusion that few studies predict the development of trade between the two countries after the opening of the China-Laos railway.Thirdly,based on the current situation of total volume and structure of bilateral trade between China and Laos from 2012 to 2021,it is found that there are still some problems in bilateral trade,such as weak transportation infrastructure,unequal trade scale and trade structure to be improved.Then,a trade potential model is constructed,and a quantitative study is conducted on the bilateral trade potential between China and Laos based on the collected data.The conclusion is drawn that the bilateral trade potential,export trade and import trade potential of China and Laos are all between 0.8 and 1.2 in the past ten years,which belongs to the pioneering trade potential,that is,the bilateral trade potential between China and Laos has not been fully developed.Need to maintain the existing positive factors and explore new positive factors.Finally,the paper puts forward four suggestions to promote the import and export trade between China and Laos.