Research On Risk Assessment And Response Of TOD Project Planning Based On SVM

There are few researches on the risk assessment of TOD project planning,and the factors identification in the process of risk assessment are incomplete,and the selection of assessment methods lacks some standardization and practicability.First of all,the risk factors existing in the planning process of TOD project and their possible risks in the construction stage and operation stage were analyzed through extensive literature reading,and the successful risk management case set of TOD project was constructed to initially identify the risk assessment index system of this paper.A support vector machine(SVM)method was proposed to construct the risk assessment model and risk coping strategy model in TOD project planning stage.Secondly,based on the risk management case set and the "3D" principle,21 project characteristics and 5 risk coping strategies of this paper are identified and quantified.Then,the importance evaluation value of each risk index is obtained according to the risk factor index preliminarily identified and scored by 11 experts.According to the expert opinions and evaluation value,the risk indicators of 16 TOD project planning stage in this paper are finally formed and the quantitative standards are clearly defined.Then,the TOD project was used as the construction object of SVM risk assessment model and risk response model.The project characteristics were taken as the input vector and the risk index as the output vector.The quantitative value of risk index was obtained after matlab training.Then,project characteristics and risk assessment results are taken as input vectors,and risk coping strategies are taken as output vectors to obtain risk coping strategies corresponding to high risk indicators.Finally,an empirical analysis of the method is carried out based on the actual engineering data.This paper selected 25 sets of data as test samples,and1 set of data as test samples.The experimental results show that the risk assessment model is applicable in the planning stage of TOD projects and can provide reference for the construction stage and operation stage of TOD projects,and the accuracy of the evaluation of high risk indicators is more than 85%.The model is used to train the actual project,and three high risk indicators are evaluated and countermeasures and specific measures are given:(1)Functional mixing risk: The main coping strategy is to select capable design partners for risk transfer;(2)Developing compactness risk: adopting risk control strategies;(3)Integrity risk of ground walking network: risk mitigation strategies should be adopted.