Quantitative Evaluation And Policy Simulation Of Digital Transformation Policies In China’s Construction Industry

The field of policy evaluation in public policy theory has become an important research element in the construction of China’s governance system.The existing analysis framework of industrial policy evaluation is mostly dominated by policy tools and supplemented by policy external attributes,and lacks a diversified policy analysis framework drawn by policy themes under the theory of policy tools.The construction industry,as a traditional real economy industry,suffers from problems such as sloppy management and lack of core competitiveness,and is in urgent need of accelerating its integration with the digital economy and promoting its digital transformation.Policies can provide a good institutional guarantee and driving force for the digital transformation of the construction industry,where policy themes are the compass for carrying out the digital transformation of the construction industry.However,policies to promote the digital transformation of the construction industry in the current digital context are still in the process of exploration.Therefore,breaking through the existing industrial policy analysis framework and exploring the integration of policy internal attributes into a policy analysis framework led by policy tools with policy themes as the traction,and using this as the basis for quantitative policy evaluation and simulation is an important basis for future policy formulation and adjustment and optimisation of digital transformation in the construction industry.In view of this,this study firstly defines the concept of digital transformation policies in the construction industry,and on this basis,reviews relevant studies on digital transformation policies,policy evaluation and policy simulation in the construction industry.Secondly,a threedimensional analysis framework of "theme-instrument-evaluation" of digital transformation policies in the construction industry is constructed,using 118 digital transformation policies in the construction industry released between 2017 and 2022 as research objects,and the LDA theme model and PMC-AE index model are used to quantitatively evaluate the policies.Then,a system dynamics model of the digital transformation policy in the construction industry is established,and policy effects are simulated for six different policy scenarios,and the impact of each core influencing factor in the three types of policy tools on the digital transformation of the construction industry is compared and analysed.Finally,the results of the policy text and policy effect evaluation are combined to propose corresponding policy optimisation suggestions.The study found that:(1)the policy themes of digital transformation in China’s construction industry include: integration of assembled buildings,construction of digital technology systems,transformation and upgrading of enterprises and construction of intelligent platforms.The policy tools are mainly biased towards the use of supply-based and environmentbased policy tools,with relatively few demand-based policy tools,especially government procurement and research project policy tools used rarely.Among them,the use of policy tools for the transformation and upgrading of construction enterprises,the integration of assembled buildings and the construction of digital technology systems is "supply-based > environmentbased > demand-based",and the use of policy tools for the construction of smart platforms is "environment-based > supply-based > demand-based ".(2)From the overall policy situation,the average PMC-AE index of 34 policies reached 10.70,with an average policy grade of good,but the policies of Yunnan and Xinjiang only reached a passing grade,with problems such as short policy timeliness,unclear policy demand and relatively single incentives and safeguards,etc.According to the evaluation results,corresponding policy optimization paths were proposed for each grade of policies.(3)The results of the policy simulation show that the effect of different policies is "technical support policy > talent training policy > financial support policy > tax incentives > government procurement policy > promotion policy".Among them,technical support policy and talent cultivation policy have significant effects;financial support policy and tax concession policy follow,but they need to be used wisely or else they will have a crowding-out effect and deviate from the policy objectives;government procurement policy and promotion policy require time investment,which leads to insignificant effects in the short term.Based on public policy theory and policy instrument theory,this study constructs a threedimensional analysis framework of "theme-instrument-evaluation" of the digital transformation policy of the construction industry and a systematic model of the impact of the digital transformation policy on the digital transformation of the construction industry,improves the evaluation method and index system of the digital transformation policy of the construction industry,enriches the theoretical research on the evaluation of the digital transformation policy of the construction industry,provides concrete paths for policy adjustment and improvement for the government to formulate the development strategy of the digital transformation of the construction industry,and helps to optimize and improve the digital transformation policy system of the construction industry.