Research On Railway Epidemic Risk Classification And Prevention Strategy Based On Trans-SEQICR Model

Since the 21 st century,SARS,novel coronavirus pneumonia and other major infectious diseases have become major problems that affect human life and health.Due to the high density and strong mobility of passenger flow,railway passenger transportation potentially provides an environmental basis for the spread of infectious diseases,leading to risks and hidden dangers for passenger travel.In response,the railway department issued guidance documents such as the Guidelines for the Normalization of the Prevention and Control of the COVID-19 in Railway Passenger Transport and proposed epidemic prevention and control norms from ten aspects.Although effective control of the spread of the epidemic has been achieved,there are a large number of "one size fits all" and other simple prevention and control measures.Under the policy background of the normalization of epidemic prevention and control,the existing model has not met the development needs of railway enterprises and society,It is urgent to adopt scientific and reasonable graded prevention and control strategies based on different levels of epidemic risk.This article aims to improve the infectious disease model by introducing railway travel contagion,in order to carry out specific research on epidemic prevention and control strategies.The main content is as follows:Firstly,based on an analysis of the current research status at home and abroad,the paper identifies four types of necessary prevention and control measures as the scope of this study,based on the principles and relevant guidelines for railway epidemic prevention and control work.It analyzes the problems that exist in the current railway department’s hierarchical prevention and control ideas and measures.Secondly,in order to conduct quantitative research on the above issues,this article proposes to improve the traditional SEIR model from two aspects: improving the infectious disease model and embedding the railway travel infectious model,and constructs a Trans-SEQICR model that considers the contagion of railway passenger flow.At the same time,four types of prevention and control measures were algorithmically processed,and the development trend of the epidemic under each measure was compared.A railway epidemic risk grading prevention and control strategy model was established,and the selection results of grading prevention and control strategies were determined.Finally,the paper selects Shanghai and Hangzhou as the research objects to analyze the railway passenger transportation process between the two cities.By fitting the data of different epidemic stages in Shanghai in 2022,the control effectiveness of prevention and control strategies under low,medium,and high epidemic risk levels is analyzed,and the feasibility of the model and algorithm is verified.Standards and suggestions for implementing graded prevention and control strategies are proposed.The paper provides scientific and effective prediction methods and analysis methods for the epidemic prevention and control work of the railway department by improving the infectious disease model and improving the prevention and control strategy model algorithm.The research results indicate that the Trans-SEQICR model established in this article can more intuitively present the process of cross regional epidemic transmission compared to traditional models.By fitting the development trend and overall scale curve of the epidemic under different prevention and control measures and comparing and analyzing,we can get the hierarchical prevention and control strategy of the railway epidemic: under the low risk level,the wearing rate of masks should not be less than 2/3,and the ventilation and disinfection frequency should reach 5 times;Under the medium risk level,further screening of abnormal passengers should be carried out,and the minimum screening ratio should not be less than 60%;When the risk level is high,further control of passenger flow should be carried out through model calculation on the basis of medium risk.The results of the paper are of great significance for railway enterprises to enhance their decision-making ability in epidemic prevention and control,consolidate passenger recognition of railway passenger safety,and ensure the operation of railway enterprises during the epidemic period.