Research On The Development Of Beef Cattle Industry In Jilin Province Based On System Dynamics

As people’s quality of life is getting higher and higher,the demand for all kinds of livestock products,especially beef cattle,has also increased.Animal husbandry and beef cattle industry have developed rapidly.Beef cattle industry also plays a more and more important role in animal husbandry.While the beef cattle industry is becoming more and more important,how to better develop the beef cattle industry has become a key issue in Jilin Province.During the 14 th Five Year Plan period,the Jilin provincial government issued two policy documents: the implementation plan of the "straw to meat" project in Jilin Province and ten policy measures to expand and strengthen the beef cattle industry in Jilin Province,actively promoting the two landmark projects of "straw to meat" and "ten million beef cattle",It is the goal and inevitable trend to strive to build a national "big meat warehouse" and "beef capital of China".Firstly,this study expounds the basic concept of beef cattle industry,and expounds the development status of beef cattle industry in Jilin Province from the aspects of breeding,processing and consumption.Taking the development of beef cattle industry in Jilin Province as the research object and based on the industrial development theory,using the data of Jilin Province from 2010 to 2019,this paper analyzes the literature research affecting the development of animal husbandry and beef cattle industry and the literature research on system dynamics,selects the influencing factors of beef cattle industry development in Jilin Province,establishes the evaluation index system of beef cattle industry development in Jilin Province,and uses the method of system dynamics to explain the purpose of modeling Determine the system boundary,divide the system into production subsystem,social subsystem,resource utilization and environment subsystem,establish causality diagram,obtain the weight of each index by entropy method,establish system flow diagram,and set relevant equations and parameters.Secondly,check whether the model meets the system simulation conditions and error requirements,and finally simulate the model.The following conclusions can be drawn: the error rate of each index of effectiveness test is less than 10%,which can be used as an effective model.The test is within a reasonable range,indicating that the model is in line with the actual situation and can be used for subsequent prediction,simulation and analysis.In the policy simulation,after increasing the beef demand by 20%,it can promote the beef output,the slaughter volume of beef cattle and the output value of beef cattle industry;After increasing the urbanization rate by 20%,it can promote the beef production;After increasing the output of straw feed,beef demand and urbanization rate by 20%,it has a significant effect on the development of beef cattle industry in Jilin Province.Finally,six suggestions are put forward to enhance the development of beef cattle industry in Jilin Province,including strengthening the construction of improved breeding system,improving the yield of straw feed,changing residents’ consumption concept of beef nutritional value,enhancing the competitiveness of beef cattle products,strengthening beef cattle technical training and vigorously developing supporting policies.