| After the collapse of the Soviet Union,Russia’s relations with the Central Asian countries changed from those between the constituent republics to those between independent states.In the early years of independence,Russia considered Central Asian countries as a "burden" that hindered its development.Russia has focused on and strengthened its policy toward Central Asia,using the CIS,CSTO,and the Eurasian Economic Community/Eurasian Economic Union as platforms at the multilateral level and maintaining friendly relations with Central Asian countries as allies or strategic partners at the bilateral level.Russia’s policy toward Central Asia in 1991-2022 has gone through four stages:economic "baggage dumping" and military pursuit of a collective security system(1991-1995),strengthening relations with Central Asian countries(1995-2002),developing economic and military integration with Central Asian countries(2002-2014),and both inherited and adjusted policy toward Central Asia after the Ukraine crisis(2014-2022).In this process,Russia has established close cooperation with Central Asian countries in the political,economic,military-security and humanistic spheres.The 2014 crisis in Ukraine was a turning point of Russia’s foreign policy,which led to a protracted confrontation with the West and the beginning of an anti-Western and "turn to the East" foreign policy.Russia’s policy toward Central Asia has been both inherited and reoriented,as reflected in its bilateral relations with Central Asian countries as "allies" or "strategic partners," and in its multilateral relations,as reflected in the strengthening of political and humanistic cooperation within the framework of the CIS.Russia has led the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union and strengthened the mechanisms and functions of the Collective Security Treaty Organization,thus further developing its economic and military security integration with the Central Asian countries.Russia has strengthened its cooperation with Central Asian countries at the multilateral and bilateral levels,and its relations with them have gained new momentum after the Ukraine crisis.After the establishment of the Eurasian Economic Union,Russia made significant progress in economic integration with Kazakhstan and Kyrgyzstan: in 2017-2021,the average annual growth in the volume of Russian-Kazakh trade was about 10%,and the average annual growth in the volume of Russian-Kyrgyz trade was about 20%;barriers to the free movement of labor between member states were basically eliminated.After the January 2022 riots in Kazakhstan,the Collective Security Treaty Organization(CSTO)got involved in the internal stabilization of member states for the first time,achieving a major functional breakthrough,thus further expanding Russia’s military security influence in Central Asia.On February 24,2022,Russia launched a special military operation against Ukraine,and the Russian-Ukrainian conflict broke out in full force.As sanctions and counter-sanctions between the West and Russia escalated,the impact of the RussiaUkraine conflict gradually became apparent,and the geopolitical and economic situation in Central Asia changed.For Russia,the sanctions imposed on it as a result of the Russia-Ukraine conflict have become more extensive and stronger,and its economic development has been severely constrained,thus limiting the resources it can invest in Central Asia.For the Central Asian countries,they are pursuing a balanced foreign policy,fearing Western sanctions for supporting Russia and seeking to distance themselves from Russia,while seeking to free themselves from Russia’s control over their energy export pipelines;internally,they are pursuing a series of "deRussianization" policies to weaken Russia’s influence on the history,culture,and social life of the Central Asian countries.External factors affecting Russia’s relations with Central Asian countries include the United States,China,the European Union,Turkey,and Iran,among which the United States and China have relatively greater influence in Central Asia.The U.S.is committed to crowding out Russia’s power in Central Asia and reducing Russia’s strategic space,but the U.S.initiated "color revolutions" have led Central Asian countries to approach Russia in order to maintain regime stability.China has always pursued a foreign policy of good neighborliness and friendship,and through the "Silk Road Economic Belt",it has strengthened cooperation with Central Asian countries in the fields of trade and economy,energy and infrastructure construction,and promoted the "One Belt,One Union" docking cooperation.Although China does not challenge Russia’s political position in Central Asia,it poses some commercial competition to it in the economic sphere.The EU is trying to bring Central Asia into the political and economic orbit of the West by promoting democracy,guaranteeing the economic independence of Central Asian countries,developing energy cooperation,and implementing NATO’s "Partnership for Peace" program,in order to crowd out Russia’s influence in Central Asia.Turkey and Iran have some influence in Central Asia in limited areas such as ethnicity and culture.In the future,Russia will continue to strengthen its diplomacy with Central Asia in order to maintain its dominant position in the region.The main basis for this judgment are: the operation of mechanisms such as the Collective Security Treaty Organization and the Eurasian Economic Union is on track,Russia will strengthen its relations with Central Asian countries at the multilateral level;Russia’s bilateral relations with Central Asian countries will continue to be strengthened;after the military conflict between Russia and Ukraine in February 2022,Russia’s confrontation with the West has become more intense,and Russia pays more attention to maintaining its dominant position in the Eurasian region,including Central Asian countries;Russia will balance the negative impact of external factors on its relations with Central Asian countries while taking advantage of the positive aspects of external factors. |
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