Research On The Collaborative Development And Prediction Of The Comprehensive Carrying Capacity Of The Beijing Tianjin Hebei Urban Agglomeration

This thesis is based on the background of coordinated development of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Ecological City Cluster,aiming to improve the sustainable development level of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Ecological City Cluster.In response to the phenomenon of uneven and uncoordinated development between and within various cities in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Ecological City Cluster,the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Ecological City Cluster is studied,providing reference for finding urban development gaps and improving the coordination degree between cities and various urban development elements.By reviewing relevant research at home and abroad,firstly,analyzing the current situation and existing problems of coordinated development of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei ecological urban agglomeration,constructing an evaluation index system for the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei ecological urban agglomeration,using the entropy weight method to standardize the raw data of various indicators,determining the weights of each carrying capacity indicator,and providing relevant basis for the calculation of urban comprehensive carrying capacity.Secondly,based on the standardized indicator values of bearing capacity,a comprehensive evaluation index model is used to comprehensively evaluate and calculate the bearing system using the weighted average method.Then,the coupling coordination degree model is used to calculate the C coupling degree,D coupling coordination and T comprehensive coordination index of the urban agglomeration and each Urban Carrying Capacity.Based on the time dimension,the urban agglomeration is divided into four functional areas,which are analyzed according to the regional characteristics and development trend.Based on the space dimension,with the help of Arc Gis10.2 software,The spatial correlation characteristics of the coupling coordination of comprehensive bearing capacity in the Beijing Tianjin Hebei region were analyzed and a spatial Lisa clustering feature map was drawn.Finally,the principle,reliability,and specific prediction steps of the grey prediction model were explained,and the changes in the comprehensive carrying capacity and subsystem carrying capacity of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei ecological urban agglomeration from 2026 to 2030 were obtained,and their trends were analyzed.The research results indicate that:(1)the development of the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei ecological urban agglomeration shows a significant gap between two levels(Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei cities),with different types of subsystem carrying capacity development;(2)The level of agglomeration and coordinated development of carrying capacity in the three regions of Beijing,Tianjin,and Hebei is not high.From a spatial perspective,the agglomeration phenomenon between urban agglomerations and various cities shows a positive correlation in spatial distribution,but the agglomeration effect is not strong,the degree of interaction between cities is weak,and there is a phenomenon of spatial imbalance in agglomeration;(3)From 2026 to 2030,the comprehensive carrying capacity of the Beijing Tianjin Hebei Ecological City Cluster showed an upward trend,still maintaining a leading position in Beijing and Tianjin compared to other cities,and the internal gap with other cities has been increasing.The comprehensive development level of Xingtai,Baoding,Cangzhou,and Hengshui cities has been consistently improving,with significant development momentum.In response to the empirical research findings,this thesis proposes the following strategic suggestions:(1)bridge the shortcomings of the subsystem and improve social basic services;(2)Constructing a reasonable industrial structure system and developing characteristic industries based on each functional area;(3)Optimize population layout and promote balanced development of population regions;(4)Focus on economic development and technological innovation,and strengthen regional complementarity and coordination.