| As one of the "troikas" driving economic growth,consumption has always been highly valued by governments around the world.Today,under the dual pressure of the new crown epidemic and the increasingly complex international situation,developing new consumption models and promoting consumption upgrades are even more important measures for my country’s high-quality social and economic development.At the same time,in response to the deepening aging of the population and the continued low fertility rate in recent years,my country’s fertility policy is also gradually changing.The "universal two-child" policy implemented in 2016 is undoubtedly a major turning point in the history of my country’s fertility policy.The implementation of this policy is not only a long-term strategy to solve the problem of labor shortage in our country,but also affects the family structure of thousands of families.As a primary social group and consumer unit,the family is not only the core support for policy implementation,but also the link that binds each family member into a consumer community.Then,what impact will the change in family fertility behavior brought about by the implementation of the "universal two-child" policy on household consumption? Therefore,this thesis will systematically grasp the impact and mechanism of policy changes on household consumption behavior,deeply explore the differences in consumption behavior under different family types,and explore ways and methods to continuously and effectively improve fertility levels,release residents’ consumption,and promote consumption upgrades.It has important theoretical significance and practical value.Based on the fertility and consumption theories such as quantity-quality trade-off,cost-utility,and preventive savings,this thesis starts from the perspective of fertility policy adjustment,and uses the data of the four periods of CFPS from 2012 to 2018 to conduct empirical analysis.Firstly,a double-difference model is established to investigate the effect of the "universal two-child" policy on household consumption.Secondly,build an intermediary model to explore the impact path of the "universal two-child" policy on household consumption.Thirdly,on the basis of the double-difference model,the two-child birth behavior of the multiplication term is added to further test the changes in the consumption level and consumption structure of families with two children after the implementation of the "universal two-child" policy.Finally,the sample regression is carried out to analyze the heterogeneity of consumption differences under different household types.The empirical results show that:(1)The "universal two-child" policy has a negative but insignificant impact on the overall level of household consumption,and only has a significant crowding-out effect on enjoyment consumption.The influence on the family’s second-child birth behavior is significantly positive,and the results of the parallel trend and the placebo test are still stable,indicating that the "universal second-child" policy has a certain policy effect on the family’s second-child birth.The mediation effect analysis shows that the implementation of the "universal two-child" policy affects household consumption through changes in reproductive behavior.(2)After further testing the changes in the consumption of families with two children after the implementation of the policy,it was found that compared with other families without a second child,the families in the treatment group that had a second child had a significantly negative impact on the level of household consumption,and the promotion effect on survival consumption was not significant,has a significant negative impact on development-oriented consumption,and has a more significant negative impact on enjoyment-oriented consumption.It proves that the increase in the number of children in the family brought about by having a second child is not conducive to the improvement of the household consumption level and the upgrading of the consumption structure.(3)Divide the sample into upper-middle-income and lower-middle-income families and regress respectively.For upper-middle-income families,after the implementation of the universal two-child policy,the second-child reproductive behavior has a positive impact on household consumption demand,but it is not significant.Significantly,it has a certain inhibitory effect on the total expenditure and enjoyment consumption of lower-middle-income families.Divide the sample into families within the system and families outside the system and return separately.For families working within the system,after the implementation of the "universal two-child" policy,the behavior of having two children has no significant impact on family consumption,but has no significant impact on household consumption outside the system.The total expenditure and enjoyment consumption of working households had a certain inhibitory effect.Divide the sample into families with houses and families without houses,the two-child birth behavior under the "universal two-child" policy has a negative impact on the consumption level and consumption structure upgrade of households without houses,but the effect is not significant.The upgrading of household consumption level and consumption structure has a significant negative impact.Further adding "buying loan burden" to the control variable,it is found that the consumption level and consumption structure upgrade of families with two children under the "universal two-child" policy further expands the inhibitory effect of the upgrading of the consumption structure.Combined with the fertility level and the current situation of household consumption in my country,as well as empirical results,this thesis puts forward the following suggestions:(1)While gradually relaxing family planning in an all-round way,speed up the establishment of a birth support policy system to ease the family’s birth pressure and encourage residents to convert birth wishes into birth behaviors.(2)Differentiate and guide consumers of different income levels,promote more targeted consumption of residents at different levels,meet differentiated consumption needs,release residents’ consumption potential,and promote the upgrading of consumption structure.(3)Strengthen the regulation of the real estate industry,emphasize the residential property of housing,curb the rise in housing prices,and at the same time vigorously develop the real estate leasing market,increase the supply of social security housing,improve the living conditions of low-income residents,and reduce the cost of family housing. |
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