Research On The Influence Of Population Age Structure On Residents' Consumption Under The Universal Two-Child Policy

The comprehensive two-child policy is a major turning point in the history of China's birth policy and a long-term strategy for solving the labor supply in China.Therefore,it is of great theoretical and practical significance to evaluate the economic effects of this policy.The government has always emphasized the fundamental role of consumption in economic development.Promoting consumption upgrading and developing a new consumption model is the inevitable result of China's economic development.Then,whether the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy will improve the consumption level of China's residents,whether it can enhance the basic role of consumption,and whether it can promote the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure of residents is a question worth exploring.On the basis of systematically combing the relevant literature on the relationship between population age structure and residents' consumption,this paper deeply explores the impact of China's population age structure change on consumer demand under the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy.Specifically,the three-generation overlapping model including intergenerational transfer is constructed first,and the theoretical mechanism analysis of population age structure and household consumption level is carried out.Secondly,an empirical test of the relationship between population age structure and household consumption is carried out from the perspectives of household consumption level and household consumption structure.On the one hand,the panel model of China's 31 provinces was established,and the system GMM estimation method was used to explore the impact of changes in the age structure of China's population on the consumption level of residents in the short term from the macro level.On the other hand,from the micro level,we explore the relationship between the age structure of the population and the consumption structure of the residents in China,and use the control variables in combination with the forecast data of China's future population structure,household consumption data,and urban and rural structural data under the comprehensive two-child policy.The method of calculating the value of the law and the contribution value,and other factors such as the income factor,the urban and rural structural factors and the population size are stripped layer by layer,and finally the influence of the age structure of the population on the consumption level and structure of the residents under the comprehensive two-child policy.After careful and in-depth theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,the conclusions of this paper are as follows.First,in the short term,the rise in the dependency ratio of children brought about by the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy can indeed promote the improvement of China's consumption level.Specifically,when the child rearing ratio increases by 0.01 percentage points,when other conditions remain unchanged,China's household consumption level will increase by 0.03 percentage points.Second,in the long run,the impact of population age structure factors on household consumption demand is significantly negative.Thanks to the increase in the birth population brought about by the comprehensive two-child policy,the inhibitory effect of the age structure of the population on the consumer demand has been alleviated in the early days of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy;after the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy for 10 years,the age structure of the population The restraining effect on household consumption has gradually increased.Third,the difference in the influence of population age structure factors on the consumption structure of residents has gradually expanded with the passage of time.Among them,the age structure of the population has the greatest impact on medical consumption.It is foreseeable that in the near future,the shortage of medical resources will continue to expand,requiring the government to lay out and prepare more in this regard.Fourth,the impact of urban and rural factors on the consumption demand of residents has a very significant role in promoting,and the impact on the consumption of various types of residents is very stable.In 2050,the contribution of the urban and rural factors of China's population to the total consumer demand was 20.2%.Therefore,adhering to the development of urbanization and narrowing the gap between urban and rural areas will help China expand its basic consumption needs and enhance the supporting role of consumption in the economy.In terms of consumption structure,the main types of urban and rural factors affecting residents' consumption in China are household equipment,culture,education and clothing and clothing.The characteristics and innovative work of this paper are mainly reflected in the following aspects:First,construct a three-generation overlapping model that considers bidirectional intergenerational transfer.Intergenerational transfer ratio variable,in rural areas,the child will raise a certain proportion of the wages to support the elderly,in the town can be understood as a certain proportion of the endowment insurance paid by the child,so it has a wide applicability;secondly,the work time variable is added to the model,Make labor investment more in line with the real situation.Secondly,in the micro-consumption measurement model,the age group variable of 5 years old is used to replace the child dependency ratio and the old-age dependency ratio,so as to study the consumption patterns of each age stage in more detail.Secondly,for the eight major categories of consumption and households.Consumption establishes simultaneous equations and uses unrelated regression methods to estimate to improve estimation efficiency and accuracy.Thirdly,considering the impact of comprehensive two-child policy on household consumption,adding urbanization factors reduces the bias caused by missing variables.error.Finally,under the new perspective and research framework of comprehensive two-child policy implementation,the impact of population age structure changes on Chinese residents' consumption level and structure is studied.On the one hand,since the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy,although the research and discussion on the birth policy is very rich,scholars' research mostly focuses on the target population of the birth policy,the size of the newly born birth policy,and the fertility willingness of women.Research on the economic and social impacts of savings,consumption,etc.caused by the implementation of the child policy is still very poor.On the other hand,studying the impact of changes in the age structure of the population on the consumption level and structure of the population under the comprehensive two-child policy has very important practical significance and guiding significance for the overall planning of China's population development and the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure.