The Impact Of The "Comprehensive Two-Child" Policy On Residents’ Consumption

In 2021,my country’s population will exceed 1.4billion,of which the middle-income group will account for about one-third,and the per capita GDP will exceed 10,000 US dollars.There is no doubt that China is one of the largest and most potential consumer markets in the world.Making full use of my country’s super-large market advantages and further strengthening the fundamental role of consumption in the national economy is of great significance to promoting high-quality economic development and meeting people’s growing needs for a better life.However,in recent years,due to the reduction of the population fertility rate and the prolongation of the average life expectancy,the rate of population aging in my country has been accelerating,and the total fertility rate of the population has dropped from about 6 in the 1970 s to about 1.3 after 2020.In 2021,my country’s population aged 65 and above will account for 14% of the total population,while the population aging standard is only 7%.In order to cope with the possible population pressure,the comprehensive two-child policy will be officially implemented since January 1,2016.In the context of an aging population,the state adjusts the birth policy and the age structure of the population will be reshaped.Whether the comprehensive two-child policy will stimulate the consumption potential of residents and promote the optimization and upgrading of the consumption structure of residents is a very worthwhile question.By sorting out the relevant literature,this paper studies the impact of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy on residents’ consumption tendency and consumption structure from different perspectives.On the one hand,from a macro level,we will discuss the impact of changes in my country’s population age structure on the consumption rate and consumption structure of residents under the implementation of the universal two-child policy.Build static and dynamic panel models for 31 provinces in my country from 2010 to 2019.On the other hand,the impact of the implementation of the comprehensive two-child policy on household consumption tendency and consumption structure is studied from the micro level.First,construct a DID model to analyze policy effects.Second,use the PSM-DID method to solve the endogenous selection bias for further analysis,and use the DDD model to analyze urban-rural heterogeneity.In order to confirm the mutual confirmation between the micro and macro research results,so that the analysis of the paper is more comprehensive;finally,the QUAIDS model is constructed to analyze the consumption structure,and the difference of household consumption structure with different demographic characteristics is studied from the perspective of price and expenditure elasticity.The results of this paper show that: First,the comprehensive two-child policy increases the consumption rate of residents,but it has no significant impact on household consumption propensity in the short term.Children,as complete consumers,have brought about an increase in the level of social consumption.However,in the short term of policy shocks,families with second children have a strong motive for precautionary savings,which can smooth consumption expenditures in each period to maximize utility;second,macroeconomics The results at the level and the micro level corroborate each other,and the comprehensive two-child policy promotes the upgrading of the consumption structure.Families responded to some of the shocks by adjusting and optimizing their consumption structure in a timely manner.A large amount of spending on beauty,social interaction and hobbies gave way to children’s education expenses,and household consumption was upgraded to promote social consumption.Third,urban households show a more obvious consumption upgrade than rural households.Compared with rural families,more urban residents have more consumption choices and more updated consumption concepts.Urban families will increase the proportion of development-oriented consumption in raising a second child and squeeze more survival-oriented consumption expenditure..Accordingly,this paper proposes the following countermeasures:(1)Deepen the supply-side structural reform and optimize the market consumption environment;(2)Increase subsidies and guarantees to reduce the burden of family childbirth;(3)Promote the construction of new urbanization and alleviate the urban-rural consumption gap.