Study On The Impact Of Chongqing Population Structure On Housing Demand

Population is the main body of society,and housing is the basis and guarantee of people’s life and production.Judging the trend of real estate market from the perspective of population is considered to be the basic method to evaluate housing demand.With the sustained development of social economy,the growth rate of the total population slows down,the era of zero or even negative population growth is coming,and new characteristics appear in the population structure,such as the acceleration of aging,the significant improvement of education level,the improvement of urbanization level and so on.At the same time,as the pillar industry of China’s national economy,the real estate industry has some problems,such as the continuous rise of housing prices and the difficulty of meeting housing demand.In recent years,the government has tried to solve the problems of high house prices and imbalance between supply and demand by means of macro-control,but the control effect is still unsatisfactory.Therefore,it is very necessary to pay attention to and study the influencing factors of housing demand.Based on the perspective of population structure,this paper summarizes the change process of population structure and housing demand,outlines the change trend of population structure and housing demand,analyzes the impact of population structure on housing demand,and reveals the dynamic relationship between population structure and housing demand,which has theoretical and practical significance.By combing and summarizing the literature at home and abroad,it is found that scholars mainly study the impact of population age structure,urban-rural structure and family structure on housing demand.This paper expands the above research objects into three types: population natural structure,population social structure and population regional structure to explore the impact of these three types of structures on housing demand.Based on previous research results and relevant theories,taking Chongqing as an example,this paper first reviews the change process of Chongqing’s population structure and housing demand,and finds out the factors that may affect housing demand in the population structure.Secondly,based on the population and housing time series data of Chongqing from 2000 to 2020,through correlation test,stationarity test and boundary cointegration test screen out the variables that meet the requirements,and establish the autoregressive distribution lag model(ARDL model)to quantitatively analyze the relationship between population structure and housing demand from an empirical perspective.It is found that there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between the natural structure,social structure,regional structure and housing demand structure of Chongqing.Specifically,in the natural structure of population,the ratio of child support to housing demand has a significant negative impact,and the ratio of elderly support to housing demand has a significant positive stimulating effect;In the social structure of population,the average household size has a significant negative impact on housing demand,and the average years of education and the proportion of employed population in secondary and tertiary industries have a significant positive stimulating effect on housing demand;In the regional structure of population,the urbanization rate and the proportion of floating population have a significant positive impact on housing demand.The research results reveal the dynamic relationship between Chongqing’s population structure and housing demand.It is suggested that relevant government departments pay close attention to the changes of Chongqing’s population structure,formulate appropriate population policies,and appropriately adjust the supply strategies of different types of housing market on the basis of overall consideration of the changes of population structure,so as to meet the housing needs of residents and realize “everyone has house to live”.