Study On The Impact Of Population Flow On Economic Growth In The Western Region

Since the implementation of the western development strategy,the level of economic development in the western China has been at an unprecedented high,which has effectively inhibited the further expansion of the difference of economic development level and between the east and the west.However,there is an undeniable fact that the gap between the economic development level of the west and the east is still not to be ignored.Moreover,for the western region itself,the internal development imbalance and inadequacy and other related problems are still obvious.Therefore,it is particularly necessary to continue to promote the development of the western region in the new era,explore new ways to promote the economic growth of the western region,and provide scientific and effective guidance opinions for narrowing the internal regional differences and promoting the high-quality development of the western region.According to the seventh census,China’s floating population increased by 69.7 percent from 221.43 million in 2010 to 375.82 million,accounting for 26.0 percent of the country’s total population.In 2010,the floating population in the western region was 50.11 million,accounting for 22.7%of the total floating population.In 2020,the floating population increased by 83.5%to 91.95 million,a growth rate of 13.5 percentage points higher than the national level,indicating that the population mobility in the western region has become a prominent hot issue in society.In summary,this paper takes the population flow in the western region as the starting point to explore the impact on the economic growth of the western region.First,this paper introduces the current situation of population flow in the western region in detail through the census data,and obtains the following conclusions:Compared with the national floating population,the western floating population is more inclined to flow in the province.The average educational background of the national floating population is on the rise,and the average educational level of the floating population in the western region is higher than the national average level of the floating population.In addition,whether it is the flow outside the province or within the province,the population flow caused by work and employment is still the leading reason for the flow.For the empirical part of this paper,a benchmark regression analysis was conducted through a two-way fixed-effect model.The results show that the population inflow in the western region significantly promotes the economic growth.Moreover,after conducting the robustness test by replacing the explained variable,adjusting for the sample period,and adding the missing variable,the conclusion that population inflow will promote economic growth is still drawn,indicating that the effect of western population inflow on economic growth results is robust and effective.For the analysis of the influence path,the intermediary effect model test shows that the population inflow of the west promotes the economic growth by affecting the employment level of the intermediary variable,the level of financial development and the industrial structure of the west of China.Among them,the proportion of indirect intermediary effect is the largest in the influence path with industrial structure as the intermediary variable.Secondly,the heterogeneity was analyzed from three perspectives of urban population size,geographical location and net population flow.The results show that the population inflow promotes the economic development of both small and medium-sized cities and large cities,but the impact varies significantly,and the driving effect of the population inflow on small and medium-sized cities is significantly better than that of large cities.For the southwest region,the population inflow promotes the northwest region more,but the overall difference is not particularly obvious.The heterogeneous analysis of the net flow direction of urban population shows that the flow of western population obviously promotes the regional economy of net urban population inflow,while there is a slight inhibitory effect on the areas of net urban population outflow.Finally,according to the research,put forward the following policy suggestions:First,for the western region,we should enhance investment attraction,increase local jobs,encourage local residents to start their own businesses,and prevent further loss of local talents.Second,in order to prevent the excessive loss of the local population,talents should also be introduced,such as the western College Student Volunteer Service Program.In addition,the government should take the lead in calling on foreign talents to participate in the construction of the west,so as to further narrow the difference in the economic development level.Third,the government should ensure local employment levels,strive to reduce unemployment,and vigorously develop local financial services.In addition,there is a large agricultural population in the western region,which should be provided with vocational skills training,encouraged to transfer to the manufacturing sector and service sectors,and optimize the regional industrial structure.Fourth,large cities should be cautious about the large inflow of population.The urban infrastructure and medical services will face huge challenges along with the inflow of population.Small and medium-sized cities have low population density and rich resources,so population inflow should be encouraged.Fifth,vigorously develop the local economic level,the local economic development degree is the barometer of population inflow and outflow.The government should increase the joint venture construction with enterprises,stimulate the investment enthusiasm of the market,and simplify the procedures for enterprises’investment and construction.For foreign enterprises’ investment and construction,tax relief or financial support will be given in the early stage.