The Effect On The Urbanization Process By Population Flow:Theoretical Analysis And Empirical Study

China’s social and economic development has experienced a huge change after reform and opening-up, an important characteristic of which was the massive-scale population migration and flow brought by the gradual unloosening of household registration system and development of urbanization and modernization. Entering the 21 st century, China’s social and economic development has been deepened more, the population flow became more closely related with urbanization too. China’s urbanization has entered the stage of accelerated development, the level of urbanization rapidly went up from 36% or so in 2000 to 56.1% in 2015. in the meantime, the population flow also presented a massive scale and ever-increasing speed, the scale of floating population in 2014 reached up to 253 millions. In the two decades to come, it can be predicted that a fast population flow and urbanization development would continue to prevail.Different from the urbanization process in developed countries globally, China’s population flow has been affected by multiple factors such as economy, social system, social structure and so on, while the urbanization process developed in the context of urban-rural dualism and effect of trans-regional local administration force. Characterized With the stage-property and complexity of population flow and urbanization process, clarifying the general situation of population flow and urbanization process at present as well as the relation between both can contribute to our correct understanding of population flow and providing a more reliable basis for the relevant policies so as to better further China’s urbanization process and social and economic development.The research about population flow and urbanization in our country, is reflected in the model of population urbanization and the measure of population flow contribution to urbanization, lack of in-depth analysis on the effect of population flow to the urbanization process, etc. mainly the present stage. In view of this, this paper first established a mathematical model to conduct a qualitative analysis on the relationship between population flow and urbanization and theoretically revealed the mechanism of influence on urbanization by the population flow based on retrospect and systemization of the domestic and overseas literatures and relevant theories; afterwards, based on theoretical analysis, by the use of spatial Tobit model, model of system of simultaneous equations and panel threshold model, an empirical test has been respectively conducted to test the effect, transmission mechanism and the existent non-linear relationship exerted by population flow on urbanization process. The research conclusion arrived by theoretical analysis and empirical test can be proposed as follows:Firstly, theoretically, the population flow was positively correlated with urbanization level, the agriculture and rural development, economic and non-agricultural industrial development, government action and institutional factor exerted influences on population flow, which in turn had an effect on urbanization process through element supply, industrial structure and economic development and other channels.Secondly, the increased level of urbanization may be attributed to the local rural population’s entering local city or to the immigrants’ entering local city from the places outside the province, and to the relative increase in urban population percentage brought by the emigration of the local agricultural registered population and the relative decrease in urbanization level brought by immigration of the local urban population as well.Thirdly, population influx had an obvious positive influence on the increase in urbanization level, and it had greater influence on the urbanization of Midwestern regions than that of eastern regions. The facilitation on urbanization by the inter-provincial population net flow in the eastern regions was mainly manifested as a population net inflow, while in Midwestern regions as a population net outflow.Fourthly, economic growth, upgrading of an industrial structure and element agglomeration were three important conducting channels for the population flow to improve the urbanization level. Every increase by 1% in population inflow rate will result in an increase by 0.16% in urbanization level through these three conducting channels. Every increase by 1% in inter-provincial population net flow rate will result in an increase by 0.06% in urbanization level through these three conducting channels.Fifthly, the agriculture and rural development, urban and non-agricultural industrial development, government action and institutional factor were important factors affecting the change in relationship between population flow and urbanization. The change in these factors will strengthen or weaken the effects of action on urbanization process by population flow and accordingly produce a structural change in relationship between population flow and urbanization.Finally, this paper provided the according policy suggestions based on these conclusions, in an effort to realize the healthy development of population flow and urbanization. Through summary, it is believed in this paper that, urbanization was a systemic project, the urbanization promotion cannot be done with the connection between urban and rural areas severed, the promotion of development of non-agricultural industry and urbanization should be done in consideration of the development of agriculture and rural areas, besides, the improper governmental interference and institutional factors that hinder population flow should be positively eliminated.