Research On The Impact Of Demographic Change On Service Consumption

Over the past four decades of reform and opening up,China’s economy has made remarkable progress,with an economic growth rate of 10 percent at one time.In 2021,despite the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic,China will still be the largest contributor to global economic growth with a total economic output of 114 trillion yuan.In 2021,the contribution of consumption to GDP growth increased by 11%over the previous year.Consumption has become the main driver of economic growth,and the proportion of service consumption has increased year by year.At the same time,the population structure changes,the birth rate drops continuously,the proportion of elderly population increases and develops towards the advanced age,the proportion of labor population shrinks,the family structure within the population structure,the urban and rural structure changes significantly.According to the theory of life cycle,the theory of hierarchy of needs,the changes in the above aspects of population structure must lead to the change of service consumption level and structure of Chinese residents,and bring significant effects on social life and economic growth.At present stage,our country is committed to the construction of a new pattern of economic development,and the consumption of energy-enabling service industry will become a leading industry.Therefore,it is necessary to further stimulate residents’ service consumption to promote the development of internal economic cycle.Based on the impact of population structure change on the service consumption as the research topic,from three aspects of age structure,family structure,urban and rural structure,the study of the new change and trend of service consumption,to accelerate the optimization and upgrading of Chinese consumption structure,promote the transformation of the economy to digital high quality is of great practical significance.This paper uses empirical analysis,comparative analysis and case analysis to analyze the impact of the change of population structure of urban and rural residents on the level and structure of service consumption.Combined with case analysis,this paper makes an in-depth discussion on the international typical experience.First of all,the relevant literature and the theories of population and consumption are sorted out,then the changes of the population structure and the development of service consumption and the current situation are analyzed,based on the analysis of the mechanism of action between the two,then the empirical research is carried out by the two-way fixed effect model,and the suggestions on the targeted development strategy are put forward based on the experience of the developed countries.The empirical results show that:(1)the current consumption structure of residents is gradually transitioning from the kind of subsistence to the type of service enjoyment,and the service consumption demand tends to be personalized and diversified,and there are differences between regions and urban and rural areas;(2)The increase of child dependency ratio has a significant positive impact on residents’ expenditure on education,culture and entertainment,health care,transportation and communication;(3)The increase of old-age dependency ratio has a positive impact on residents’consumption of medical care,education,culture and entertainment;(4)The decrease of the average registered population and the improvement of the urbanization rate are conducive to the improvement of the level of service consumption.The service consumption capacity of different regions divided according to the population flow situation is different under the influence of the change of population structure.Based on the typical characteristics of population structure change,this paper introduces population age structure,population family structure and population urban-rural structure into the service consumption analysis model,empirically tests the effects of changes in population dependency ratio,family population size and urban-rural population ratio on the level and structure of service consumption,and puts forward several targeted policy suggestions based on the empirical conclusions.Therefore,it can provide reference for the population structure change to stimulate the growth of residents’ service consumption,expand domestic demand,optimize the structure and help realize the great development of economic inner circulation.