| In order to achieve the “dual carbon goal”,the Chinese government aims improve the green financial system to guide capital to low-carbon projects;Green credit plays a core role in the green finance system,and the development quality of green credit in the banking industry determines that of green finance.In terms of green finance policies in China,credit standards,statistics system,and environmental information disclosure system have been gradually improved,but the incentive and restraint mechanisms cannot help promote green finance effectively.In existing academic studies,there is a large gap between the model assumptions related to incentive and constraint mechanisms and the reality,so the policy effects cannot be well predicted.Therefore,expanding and revising the existing model assumptions has a high theoretical value to guide the formulation of incentive and constraint policies and improve the development quality of green financeBased on the prospect theory,evolutionary game theory,and general equilibrium theory,this paper constructs an improved indefinite evolutionary game model and studies the influence of the changes of incentive and constraint policy parameters on the expansion process of green credit.It is found that:(1)Interest subsidy only has a temporary stimulating effect on the expansion of green credit.(2)Maintaining the high quality of green credit is in conflict with expanding the green credit and maintaining strict government supervision;Reducing regulatory costs,collecting environmental resource fees and improving consumers’ awareness of environmental protection can effectively alleviate this dilemma.(3)The introduction of prospect utility theory only affects the implementation effect of constraint policies,and this effect is positive;(4)In the long run,when the "green" degree of the society is low,the characteristic of loss aversion of enterprises make constraint policies more effective.Finally,this paper puts forward guiding suggestions for the government to formulate incentive and constraint policies.The government’s incentive policies for the banking industry should focus on long-term special green loans,and promote green finance instruments to improve the liquidity of green credit.In terms of policies for enterprises,the government should focus on improving the constraint mechanism like Environmental Taxation Legal System.The effect of incentive and constraint policies is restricted by a variety of factors.The government can reduce the regulatory cost by improving the green product peer supervision system and enabling green finance supervision by fintech,so as to alleviate the dilemma that the incentive and constraint mechanism cannot simultaneously improve the quality of green credit and expand the scale of green credit. |