Research On The Relationship Between Civil Aviation Freight And Economic Development In China

Civil aviation freight is one of the transportation modes with development potential.The relationship between civil aviation freight and economic development reflects the relationship between transportation and economic development.At the same time,due to the particularity of civil aviation freight,it is compared with traditional transportation.It is also fast and efficient.Theoretically study the relationship between civil aviation freight and economic development.From the perspective of economic growth,civil aviation freight plays an important role in the economy as a production factor in the neoclassical economic theory,and in the endogenous economic growth theory,this effect is greater.The internal mechanism of the impact of civil aviation freight on economic development is mainly manifested in two aspects.One is that civil aviation freight,as a bridge for the flow of production factors and products between regional economies,will accelerate the production of industrial agglomeration between different regional economic entities,thereby improving the economic efficiency and promote economic growth.Second,transportation costs are an important factor affecting economic efficiency.Civil aviation freight reduces transportation costs and transaction costs,thereby improving market efficiency.To further analyze the way that civil aviation freight affects economic growth,it is necessary to analyze from the perspective of regional economics,and analyze from the micro-level the production organization method when enterprises organize production based on the existence of transaction costs and the production organization without transportation costs or transaction costs.Through theoretical analysis,the relationship between civil aviation freight and economic development is systematically sorted out,including the causal relationship between them and the internal mechanism of this causal relationship.level theoretical basis.On the basis of theoretical research,the relationship between civil aviation freight and economic development is empirically analyzed by time series method.First,an ARMA model is established for civil aviation freight turnover,and the average change trend of civil aviation freight turnover is studied.Both the turnover and the civil aviation cargo volume are autoregressive moving average models with a lag of 5 periods,and the estimated model is used to forecast the civil aviation cargo volume and the civil aviation turnover.Then the EGARCH model is established for the civil aviation freight turnover.On the one hand,the fluctuation characteristics of the civil aviation freight turnover are analyzed,and the fluctuation rate of the civil aviation freight turnover is obtained.On the other hand,the asymmetric characteristics of the model are analyzed.Positive asymmetric fluctuation characteristics,that is,the response to positive shocks is greater than that of negative shocks.On the basis of the univariate time series model,the SVAR model is established to conduct pulse analysis on the relevant indicators of civil aviation freight and economic development.It is a positive effect,and the impulse effect on the total import and export volume is a negative effect.Conversely,the impulse effect of GDP on civil aviation freight is positive,and the impulse effect of total import and export on civil aviation freight is negative.Finally,according to the results of theoretical analysis and empirical analysis,corresponding countermeasures and suggestions are given.