| At the end of 2020,China’s anti-poverty campaign has won a comprehensive victory,and the future will officially enter the post-poverty era.How to consolidate the results of the anti-poverty campaign has become an important task of China’s anti-poverty work at this stage.In order to avoid the recurrence of poverty,it is necessary to improve the dynamic monitoring of poverty return and new poverty.The poverty vulnerability index can identify the groups that may fall into poverty in the future,which is predictive and dynamic,and becomes an effective tool for policy formulation of relevant departments.Among the risk factors that lead to the vulnerability of poverty,health shock is undoubtedly one of the important factors.The people out of poverty may return to poverty due to the deterioration of their health conditions,and the groups that were not poor may also fall into poverty due to health shock.At the same time,social capital plays an important role in people’s work and life.In the absence of formal institutions,social capital can play the "filling" role of informal institutions to help resist risk shocks.Therefore,based on the China Family Panel Studies(CFPS)2018 data,this paper uses the VEP method to measure the poverty vulnerability of rural households in China,and uses the Logit model to explore the relationship between health impact,social capital and poverty vulnerability of rural households.This study finds that:(1)based on the poverty standards of US $1.9/day and US $3.1/day,the health impact will significantly increase the poverty vulnerability of rural households to a certain extent,and this conclusion is still robust when different estimation methods are replaced;(2)In the context of rural families,social capital can reduce the poverty vulnerability of rural families,and social capital can significantly negatively adjust the adverse impact of health shocks on family poverty vulnerability.Further research shows that social capital negatively regulates the positive impact of health shock on poverty vulnerability mainly through the form of economic support and popularity given by relatives,that is,the better the popularity,the more economic support given by relatives,the more it can alleviate the negative impact of health shock on rural families.(3)The results of heterogeneity analysis show that the deepening effect of health shock on poverty vulnerability is more obvious in households with lower education level,but there is no significant difference in the eastern,central and western regions;The slowing down effect of social capital on poverty vulnerability is more prominent in the central and western regions and households with lower education level.Finally,based on the above research conclusions,this paper puts forward the following policy recommendations:(1)Strengthen health risk management,and reduce rural family health risks by taking multiple measures before and after the event through dynamic monitoring,precise health assistance and health education publicity;(2)We will improve the long-term mechanism of the medical security system,give full play to the basic function of medical security,and reduce the burden of medical care for residents;(3)We should attach importance to fostering social capital,fully tap the role of social capital in modern economic development under the market economy,strengthen the informal social support network,and give play to the future poverty reduction benefits of social capital. |
