A Study On Expected Income,Institutional Trust And Farmers’ Homestead Withdrawal Intention

With the development of urbanization,the inherent gap between urban and rural areas has been increasingly impacted,and the distinction between urban and rural areas has become increasingly blurred.The decomposition and reorganization of traditional rural areas in space and time is becoming a reality.At the same time,the size of urban and rural areas showed polarization.Along with the new generation of farmers gradually transferred to urban areas,the phenomenon of "population aging","village hollowing" and "land wastage" began to appear in rural areas.On the contrary,the influx of a large number of transferred population has provided abundant labor force for urban development,but also brought huge pressure of citizenization.The demand for urban construction land is very short.Therefore,exploring new sources of construction land has become an important measure to alleviate the current urban development,and the huge stock of rural homestead has thus become a new direction of exploration.As a part of the "Three Plots of Land" reform that involves the most individual will of farmers,homestead has long been the main basis for most farmers to solve the housing problem in the past.This situation has changed with the decrease of farmers’ willingness to agricultural production in the rural development in the new era,and homestead has begun to be perceived by farmers as an asset component that can obtain benefits.Due to this influence,the exploration of factors affecting the perception and judgment of peasant households’ homestead has gradually become one of the preconditions for improving the efficiency of homestead utilization,providing a new source of construction land indicators for urban construction land,and exploring the possibility of homestead withdrawal and implementing measures.From the perspective of expected return and institutional trust,based on domestic and foreign research results and literature,this thesis carries out a theoretical analysis of the mechanism correlation between expected return,institutional trust and farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention.At the same time,combined with the questionnaire survey data of283 households in Shouxian County,based on the endowment effect and other related theories,and with the help of the construction of binary Logistic regression model,the empirical analysis of the impact of expected return and institutional trust on farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention was carried out.Finally,the research conclusions were drawn as follows:(1)Core variables: 1)Expected return(compensation method expectation,compensation reasonable expectation,compensation fulfillment expectation)can significantly positively affect farmers’ homestead exit intention.Reasonable compensation that can be timely and fully issued and meet the needs of farmers has a more obvious promoting effect on farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention.2)Institutional trust has a significant positive effect on farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention;3)Institutional trust has a moderating effect on farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention based on expected income;4)Under the effects of different dimensions of institutional trust(administrative idea trust,administrative behavior trust),the degree of impact of expected income on farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention is different.(2)Control variables: 1)In terms of individual and family characteristics of farmers,male farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention is more negative than female farmers’.The age level of farmers has a negative significant effect on their homestead withdrawal intention.The educational level of farmers has a significant positive effect on their homestead withdrawal intention.The number of children raised by farmers’ families has a significant negative effect on their homestead withdrawal intention.Rural households whose main income source is part-time farming income have more negative homestead withdrawal intention than pure farming income and non-agricultural income.2)Within the homestead characteristics of farmers,homestead area has a significant positive impact on farmers’ homestead withdrawal intention;Farmers with the main house structure for the building than the bungalow homestead withdrawal intention is more positive.