Study On The Trade Potential Of Russian Wheat Export To China

With the economic development and population growth,China’s demand for food is also increasing.As the second largest staple food source in China,wheat plays an extremely important role in China’s diet structure.Although China has become the world’s largest wheat producer,there is still a big contradiction between domestic wheat supply and demand.China’s wheat import channels are relatively single and centralized.The import of wheat is mainly concentrated in the United States,Australia and Canada.Affected by the "Sino-US trade friction" and the epidemic for three years,there is great uncertainty in the import of wheat.Therefore,China needs to broaden the channels of wheat import,seek more and more stable wheat import partners,and reduce the potential risks of China’s grain import.Russia is a traditional grain producer and the world’s largest wheat exporter.It has a deep foundation of cooperation and excellent conditions for wheat trade cooperation with China.Therefore,promoting China’s import of Russian wheat is of great importance to maintain our food security.This paper collects the concerns the concrete date of wheat production,consumption and trade between China and Russia in the last ten years,and analyzes the current situation of Chinese wheat import from Russia.Including the causes,existing problems,advantage conditions and historical status of wheat trade between the two countries.Based on the theory of comparative advantage,national competitive advantage theory and factor endowment theory,combined with the expanded trade gravity model,panel data of major wheat importing countries in China from 2010 to 2020,and analyzes the main factors affecting China’s wheat imports through STATA software.And the trade potential of China’s wheat imports from Russia during 2016-2020 was calculated according to the expanded gravity model after testing.The results of the study show that China’s GDP,the GDP of the country of origin of wheat imports,trade distance,the level of international logistics performance and the signing of the "Belt and Road" agreement have a significant impact on China’s total wheat imports,while the foreign exchange rate has no significant impact.The coefficient of wheat trade potential for both countries ranged from 0.8 to 1.2,indicating that the wheat trade between China and Russia is relatively stable and growth-oriented in terms of trade potential criteria.