Study On Agricultural Trade Among The Three Countries Under The Framework Of The China-Japan-ROK FTA

Under As major global economies,China,Japan,and South Korea are key players in the economic growth of the East Asia region and the world.In recent years,the economic integration of the East Asia region,led by China,Japan,and South Korea,has made significant progress.However,there are still many issues to be resolved in agricultural trade within the region,such as slowing trade growth and trade imbalances.This paper aims to demonstrate the possibility of solving agricultural trade issues between China,Japan,and South Korea by promoting the process of establishing a trilateral free trade zone through the study of agricultural trade between the three countries and the analysis of the impact of regional free trade agreements on agricultural trade among the three countries.The goal is to provide a reference for promoting stable trade development patterns among the three countries and furthering regional economic and trade cooperation.Firstly,this paper,based on the actual situation of agricultural trade between China,Japan,and South Korea and referencing multiple statistical calibers,reorganizes the classification of agricultural products as a basis for subsequent research and related conclusions.Secondly,based on the classification,this paper conducts multidimensional analysis of the current state of agricultural trade among the three countries.Firstly,it summarizes the trade scale and product structure of agricultural products among the three countries,and the basic market situation,existing problems,and the flow of resources and factors.Secondly,the results of the analysis of the competitive nature of agricultural products in China,Japan,and South Korea using the revealed comparative advantage index,export similarity index,and trade specialization index show that the competitiveness of agricultural trade among the three countries is at a disadvantage in the global market,and further trade cooperation among the three countries is beneficial.Thirdly,the analysis of the complementarity of agricultural products in China,Japan,and South Korea using the trade complementarity index and trade intensity index shows that the complementarity of agricultural products among the three countries is strong,and the trade relationship is close,but the dependence has declined in recent years.Overall,the existing trade relationship among China,Japan,and South Korea is relatively close,the flow of factors is more reasonable,and there is great cooperation space and trade potential,making it necessary to establish a trilateral free trade zone.In addition,this paper constructs a dynamic recursive GTAP model based on 2025,simulating and analyzing the impact of different trade scenarios on the economy of China,Japan,and South Korea.The results show that the establishment of a trilateral free trade zone among China,Japan,and South Korea can bring positive economic benefits to the member countries,with Japan and South Korea benefiting the most and trade conditions significantly improved.As for agricultural output levels,the establishment of a trilateral free trade zone can help improve the output levels of agricultural products in China and South Korea,while Japan’s output levels will be somewhat impacted.Overall,the establishment of a trilateral free trade zone among China,Japan,and South Korea has a positive effect in terms of trade creation,which is greater than the effect of trade diversion.Based on the above analysis and demonstration,this paper proposes policy recommendations for promoting the establishment of a trilateral free trade zone among China,Japan,and South Korea,as well as the development and expansion of China’s agricultural industry,including:(1)Accelerating the construction of the free trade zone and setting up a technology exchange platform;(2)Strengthening communication and introducing pilot free trade zones;(3)Flexibly dealing with the scope of agricultural product access and tariff reduction difficulties;(4)Optimizing the agricultural structure and unifying the certification system;(5)Making rational use of the comparative advantages of agricultural products and fully tapping the trade potential.