Empirical Study On The Potential Of China’s Agri-product Exports To Japan Under The China-Japan FTA Framework

Because that multilateral trade negotiations are very slow, more and more countries begin to focus on bilateral trade liberalization. China’s economy slows down for the past few years, to enter the "new normal". China need to expand the scope of opening-up to get a larger market. To Sign a free trade agreement can create a good environment for China’s exports. Japan is one of its important trading partners, but they have not yet to formally sign the FTA. Agricultural products are very subtle in the negotiations.Though the combination of qualitative and quantitative research methods, this paper analyzes the related issues theoretically and empirically. To begin with, we analyze the impact of FTA on China’s agricultural products to Japan theoretically. This part is concentrated on elaborating the impacts of the reduction of tariffs, the elimination of non-barriers and other factors on the effect of trade creation and transfer.Then comb the development stage of China-Japan FTA, discuss possibility and hindering factors, and study the status quo of China’s agricultural exports to Japan. Get the following conclusion, China’s exports of agricultural products to Japan grow quickly and are relatively concentrated, and China has been in the trade surplus position; Other countries contribute more to the growth of China’s exports than Japan; China continuously upgrade the competitiveness in Japan. In terms of agricultural products, the trade relationship of China to Japan is relatively tighter.Secondly, using the panel data of China’s agricultural products exports to 25 countries from 1995 to 2014, this paper establishes the gravity equation of China’s exports, and calculates its potential to Japan. Get the following conclusions. China’s agricultural exports to Japan has a big potential, and the establishment of the China-Japan FTA will help to explore the potential.Finally, aiming to promote the development of FTA and facilitate China’s agricultural exports to Japan, we propose some relative policy advice. We should set a reasonable transition period for FTA, strengthen the communication between the Chinese and Japanese governments, explore free trade zone pilot of agriculture products, build agricultural cooperation vertical division of labor in the value chain using comparative advantage, perform structural reforms of production, establish and improve the related laws and regulations, promote other free trade negotiations.