Analysis Of Marine Traffic Security' Social Benefits Based On Control Theory

Safety, economy, comfort and efficiency are subjects of economic and social development of various countries and the starting point of industrial policy formulation nowadays. They are also the goals that human production and life pursue. Traffic safety is the foundation and the commander of social development, and it is playing important role in the national economy development. Marine traffic securiy and its control are important components of traffic safety, and they have significant influence to the social development.Along with the development of international trade and domestic economy, marine traffic becomes increasingly boomy. Marine traffic security and its control in our country become more and more important. In foundation of the fundamental research of marine traffic security and its control, this article analyses the public characteristics and externalities of marine traffic security control from the control economic angle. Moreover, the positive externalities of marine traffic security control mainly manifest the society benefits of marine traffic security in the condition of control. Therefore this article has carried on the society benefits evaluation of marine traffic security. Finally, this paper proposed the strategy and suggestion to increase the society benefits of marine traffic security.After summarizing, concluding and analyzing the former research achievements and based on the theories and methods of Economics, Grey Markov Model, Catastrophe Theory, Fuzzy and Gray Comprehensive Evaluation, this paper evaluates synthetically the public attributes of the marine traffic security control and the society benefits of marine traffic security by qualitative and quantitative means.This paper studies the following:1. On the basis of researching the marine traffic security system, this paper analyses the elements of the marine traffic security control, such as main body, object and approach, comparing and analysing the main bodies of the marine traffic security control in the USA, Japan and Australia in order to define the differences.2. This paper classifies the marine transportation and public management based on the different industry classification systems of U.N. and Europe. After that, this paper classifies the marine traffic security control and analyses its attributes as a kind of products.3. From the perspective of public attributes and externalities, this paper discusses the connotation, characteristics and classification of the marine traffic security control as public product. And it analyses the positive and negative externalities of the marine traffic security control.4. This paper evaluates the marine traffic security control of special region from the perspective of its public product attribute. During the evaluation, this paper uses the Grey Markov Forecasting Model to analyse and forecast the number of marine traffic accidents of Shenzhen, considering adequately the random fluctuation of the accidents, so that it improves the precision of the forecast. According to the result of the forecast, it sets up reasonable goals for the marine traffic security control.5. After comparing several methods of evaluating society benefits and setting up the scientific and comprehensive evaluating system of society benefits. This paper uses Catastrophe Theory, Fuzzy and Gray Comprehensive Evaluation to evaluate the society benefits of marine traffic security of Shenzhen. On the basis of the results, this paper compares the two methods.6. According to the results of the evaluation of the society benefits of marine traffic security of Shenzhen and the need to develop, this paper puts forward the proposal and strategy to increase the society benefits of Shenzhen and the whole nation's marine traffic security.