Font Size: a A A

Theoretical And Simulation Empirical Study On Urban Real Estate Regulation

Posted on:2013-08-15Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:J B OuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330362465327Subject:Industrial Economics
Abstract/Summary:PDF Full Text Request
The real estate industry is an important pillar and basic industry of the nationaleconomy, is also an important driving force of cities’s economic development, socialdevelopment and spatial layout. In recent years, problems such as the overhighhousing price, overinvestment and structural imbalance in the real estate market havebecome increasingly prominent. The real estate bubble caused by disorderly rising ofthe housing price, speculation, information asymmetry, violation operation, poormonitoring and lag of relevant laws and regulations produces significant influence onmacroeconomy and social stability. These problems cannot merely be solved by thespontaneous adjustment of the market mechanism without effective controllingpolicies adopted by the government. Chinese government has insufficient experiencesin macro-control of the real estate market, and the theoretical studies on the real estateregulation are not systematic and in depth. Therefore, how to norm and regulate thereal estate market, has become an important topic.Focusing on the government’s regulation on the real estate industry, and based onthe domestic and foreign theory of real estate regulation, the mainly objective of thispaper is, to find out the characteristics of China’s real estate market developmentthrough the analysis and summary of the theory and practice of the domestic andforeign real estate regulation policy, to empirical analyze on the performance ofChina’s real estate regulation polices, then, to provide a reference for the policydevelopment, policy optimization and policy evaluation on the future real estateregulation.This paper is expounded from three levels: first, summarizing the currentresearches and analyzing the real estate regulating policy system and its mechanism,presenting the urban real estate regulation "policy failure" phenomenon unique toChina and analyzes its causes, and proposing the general idea and the overall systemof the real estate regulation; second, in-depth analyzing the role of various policymeasures on the urban real estate regulation from the four aspects of macroeconomic regulation, government regulation, housing security and government improvement,respectively, the policy measures here including financial and fiscal policy, land andadministrative policies, housing security system and the game between the central andlocal government, etc., and propsing corresponding recommendations forimprovement; third, by using methods of historical comparative analysis and systemsimulation, a case study on Guangzhou being conducted as the empirical analysis,which illustrates the history and characteristics of China’s real estate regulation,empirical analyzing the performance of the real estate regulating policies, anddrawing some conclusions consistent with the theoretical analysis.This paper has the following possible innovations:First, the paper points out and analyzes China’s urban real estate market-specific"policy failure". In China’s urban real estate market, there is not only "market failure"inherent in a mature market, but also a "policy failure", including the effects of"demand amplification" and "limited supply", caused by the current economic andsocial development stage and the land control system and others, therefore, theChina’s urban real estate regulation should not only insist on the use of macro andindirect means of monetary and fiscal policies to inhibit the problem of "marketfailure", commonly used in the mature markets, but also be supplemented by microand direct means of land and administrative policies, to inhibit the problem of "policyfailure", such as rationalizing the distribution of and the relations about the powers,the responsibilities and the benefits between the central and local government,improving the housing security system, smoothing the residents’ investment channels,phase inhibition of the market demand.Second, this paper creates the game model of China’s central and localgovernments in the regulation of urban real estate. An important reason of theunfavorable real estate regulation in China is the different interest demands of thecentral government and local government, resulted from the local fiscal revenuesmainly relying on the land finance after the tax system reform. Guided by theprinciple of maximizing local fiscal revenues, the local government always have theimpulse of negative response to the central government’s regulation policies.The analysis of incomplete information dynamic game showed that the passive attitude oflocal government toward the central government’s regulatory measures is consistentwith the demands of their interests, Then it is proposed that, in order to achieve theobjectives of the real estate market regulation, the central government must adjust thebehavior of local governments.Third, this paper builds the simulation model of the real estate market system, tosimulate the empirical effect of real estate regulation policy. The simulated empiricalevidence shows that, in accordance with the influence degree of the real estate prices,real estate regulation policy can be roughly divided into three categories: the firstcategory is the very sensitive policy, including credit limitation and purchaserestriction, when this policy is implemented, the real estate prices will have very largeadjustments; the second category is the more sensitive policy, including the publicsale of residential land, housing loan interest rate adjustments, when this type ofpolicy is implemented, the real estate prices will have more substantial adjustments;the third type of policy is the low sensitive policy, including resident populationgrowth polices, housing purchase tax and fee adjustments, real estate development taxand fee adjustments, supplying the security room for sale and the adjustments of theinterest rate of the real estate development loan, the implementation of such policyhas little impact on real estate prices.
Keywords/Search Tags:Real estate market, Regulating polices, Housing security, Marketsimulation
PDF Full Text Request
Related items