Study On Resource Constraints In The Process Of Industrialization In China

In China, one of the main tasks at this stage is to promote the process of industrialization, and strive to accomplish industrialization in2020. Industrialization is bound to consume substantial resources; the industrial economy is a high-carbon economy, especially China’s large population, and the process of industrialization demand for vast resources. At present, the resources per capita in China is far below the world average; resource shortage phenomenon is notable, which is a conspicuous contradiction of China’s industrialization. In China’s industrialization process, the supply of resources is insufficient, environmental carrying capacity is limited, but the existing research focuses on the analysis of natural resources and economic growth, lack research of resource constraints in the process of industrialization in China. In this dissertation, the urgent need is to study the situation and development trend of China’s resource supply and demand, analyze the impact of resource constraints on industrialization, and to seek an effective way to overcome resource constraints.In general, the scarcity of resources played a double-edged role, on one hand, the scarcity of resources will constraint the industrial development speed, structure and size; on the other hand, the shortage of resources is to bring the scientific and technological innovation, and promote the development of technology, so as to promote efficient use of resources, and to find new resources and create new industries, which is more conducive to the advancement of industrialization. From the perspective of the double-edged role of resources scarcity, this dissertation studys resources constraint in the process of industrialization in China. Resources are including non-renewable resources and renewable resources, from the perspective of non-renewable resources; the Chinese demand for iron ore resources in the past decade is extremely rapid, while domestic iron ore supply obviously can not meet the demand, the constraints of the iron ore resources for the industrialization of China is more and more obvious; from the perspective of renewable resources, water resources are one of the renewable resources that have most close contact with industrialization. Therefore, iron ore and water resources can be as the representatives of non-renewable resources and renewable resources respectively, empirical research of resource constraints in the process of industrialization in China, in order to analyze the impact of resource constraints on industrialization. This dissertation is on the basis of relevant research, review of basic theory of industrialization and resource constraints with industrial economics, resource economics, and development economics, use of econometrics, economic forecasting, qualitative and quantitative analysis, case studies and international comparative approach, and strive to combine the theory and the actual, basic theoretical research and case studies, qualitative and quantitative analysis, the total and structural analysis, to define the relative and absolute resource constraints. Moreover, this dissertation study resource constrained conditions and overcome ways in the different industrialized stages. For the empirical studies of resource constraints in the process of industrialization, it takes iron ore and water resources for example, use three different methods to forecast the future supply and demand, in order to improve the accuracy of the forecasts.This dissertation is organized as follows:Chapter Ⅰ is the introduction. This chapter describes the background and significance, and then elaborate dissertation frame structure, content and research methods, and finally put forward the innovative and inadequacies.Chapter Ⅱ is literature review. This chapter summarize of the domestic and international research on the industrial and resources constraints, including scarce resources’double-edged role, the resource constraint mechanism and theoretical exploration, as well as iron ore resources and water constraints and the ways of overcome resource constraints.Chapter Ⅲ is the basic theory of resource constraints in the process of industrialization. On the basis of domestic and foreign research, it discusses the connotation and denotation of resource constraints, industrialized status of the resource constraint of the different stages of development, and the basic theor of overcome the resource constraints and international experience, thus forming the present theory foundation.Chapter Ⅳ is resource constraints and ways of overcoming of industrialization at this stage in China. This chapter analyzes the China’s industrialization process, the characteristics and resource constrained conditions of this stage industrialization, reveal the research of overcome resource constraints for the promotion of sustainable economic growth and promote the process of new industrialization is very important, and put forward the ways of overcoming resource constraints.Chapter V is the iron ore resource constraints of industrialization at this stage in China. This chapter reviews rapid increase in iron ore resources since2000; analyze the gap between demand and supply. Then, it use of exponential smoothing method, the growth curve method and principal component method to forecast the iron ore supply and demand in China from2011to2020. At last, it analyzes the impact of iron ore resource constraints on the industrialization and urbanization in China, specifics policy recommendations responding to China’s iron ore resource constraints.Chapter VI is the water resources constraints of industrialization at this stage in China. On the basis of analysis of supply and demand changes and features of water resources in China for nearly decade, this chapter uses of the31provinces across the country panel data to analyze, and simulate the national water consumption model to predict the2011-2020water supply and demand gap, compared with the predictions of the exponential smoothing method and the quota method. Finally, it based on the gap of water resources in future, analysis of effect of water resource constraints on an industrial scale, structure, layout, and ecological impact. At last, it proposes effectives way to overcome the water resource constraints.Chapter VII is the conclusions and prospect. This chapter is summarized to conclude the full text, including the basic theory of the process of industrialization, resource constraints and ways to overcome of industrialization at this stage in China, the iron ore resource constraints of industrialization at this stage in China, the water resources constraints of industrialization at this stage in China. Thus, put forward expand the object of empirical research; expand the research methods, compare the different resources constraint mechanism, take in-depth study of resource constraints the international experience, so that to carry out further research.In summary, this dissertation compared to other similar literature, it may have four innovations:first, based on the double-edged role of resources scarcity, this dissertation study of resource constraints in the process of industrialization in China; second, this dissertation take iron ore and water resources as example, on behalf of one of non-renewable resources and renewable resources respectively, do empirical study of the resource constraints in the process of industrialization; third, this dissertation use the exponential smoothing method, the growth curve method and principal component method, to predict the supply and demand of iron ore stone resources in the future and forecast the gap; Fourth, this dissertation use the panel model, exponential smoothing method and the fixed method, to forecast future water demand and the gap, to improve the accuracy of the forecasts.