Preparation And Application Of Macro Economic Prosperity Index In Hunan Province

The economic prosperity index is usually used as a barometer of economic status. It plays an important role in the national economic management and policy making.But as the economy of home and abroadin is in the adjustment and large transformation process,the complicated and changeable environment has increased the difficulty of future economic situation analysis.It is especially diffcult for the province regions to build an economic prosperity index,because provinces economy is confronted with multiple factors including the influence of international, national and provincial.By using the econometric analysis method,this paper constructed a prosperity andearly warning index of macro economy in Hunan province.Using this index to analyze current economic climate condition in Hunan province, and given a forecast to the future economic situation.First,we described the theoretical basis for prosperity index analysis.After the definition of the related concepts for economic prosperity index,this part reviewing the theoretical verification cycle theory and leading indicator of economic cyclical fluctuations in the economic cycle leading,introduced the calculation method of economic analysis, information extraction method and synthetic index,at last introduced some macro-economic prosperity index mde by the America, Japan, South Korea, OECD and National Bureau of statistics, the state information center of china.Then is the choice of alternative index for the economic prosperity index.Insist on principles such as economic importance, statistical sufficiency principles and index of coordination,Considering the general factors of consumption, investment, foreign trade, industry, policy, factors of production, political and psychological impact on economy.Combined with Hunan province macroeconomy fluctuation obviously, high dependence, industrial supporting ability, influence by the national macro economic environment on investment,we choose45indicators as the alternative index toconstruct prosperity index.The third, we introduced the process and classification of prosperity index.Using seasonally adjusted method, time difference correlation analysis, K-L information analysis, regression analysis and the peak valley method of corresponding,Screening out the scale of industrial added value, crude steel production, industrial power generation, above scale industrial enterprises product sales rate, household appliances and audio-visual retail sales as coincident indicators;the number of new projects on investment in fixed assets this year, cement production,deposits of financial institutions, long-term loans of financial institutions,the HSBC PMI index and the M2index of china as leading indicator;Hunan CPI index, the volume of freight, Hunan’s PPI index, Hunan imports, Hunan local budget expenditure, Hunan local budget revenue and national macroscopical economy prosperity lagging index as a lagging indicator.The fourth, we constructs the macroeconomic prosperity index of Hunan province.Based on assignment and the determination of the critical value in the division of the doldrums, we constructs theearly warning index and use the "signal" diagram to show it;Based on the method of non model to make the leading,coincident and lagging synthetic index.As verify the prosperity index and GDP and synthetic index,we found that the prosperity index can better reflect the economic situation of macro economy in Hunan province.Finally, we analyzed the macro economy at present and development situation in Hunan province in2014based on the prosperity index.To2013December, the macro economy in Hunan province is still in the cold state, leading index is still in decline stage,which predicts that the future of economic situation in Hunan Province is still not optimistic.In2014, the international economic is on recovery process, the domestic economy will maintain stable growth,The economy of Hunan province despite many constraints, but duing the various favorable factors,through to enlarge effective demand, accelerate the reform and innovation, promote the transformation and restructuring, ensuring and improving people’s wellbeing and so, the economy of Hunan province will continue to maintain steady growth, expected annual GDP growth of around10%in2014.