| China’s manufacturing industry, which is in the central position of the industry, is the foundation of the national economy. After the economic crisis, the regression and development of the real economy is attached great importance by the developed countries which plan the development of manufacturing from a fresh perspective featured by informatization and intellectualization. China’s manufacturing industry has significant problems, such as, core technology dependence, lack of chinese-developed technology and the low-cost advantage of the input factors are fading away. So, technology progress of China’s manufacturing industry must be carried out more quickly and effectively.The current researches on technology progress of China’s manufacturing industry usally focus on the calculation of technological efficiency and technological progress without further theory study. The main study method of technological risks are assessment analysis, but not for manufacturing industry.Based on the theory of technology advancement, transaction theory, life cycle theory of technology, consumer surplus theory, information asymmetric theory, adverse selection, adopting data envelopment analysis (DEA), index analysis method and factor analysis, etc. The conclusions of this study are:1. This study concludes and analyses the affecting factors which impact the realization of technology advancement:at first, underspending on R&D arouses Research and Development risk. It is studied from the perspective of human investment in technology and R&D as a percentage of GDP. Then, technological output is so inefficiency that the technology progress meet with a check:In order to prove this point the study compares the number of effective patents and patent applications of PCT from China with developedcountry’s. At last, low industrialization of technology is the danger for technology transfer: the conclusion is drawn from analysing the relationship between technology’s supply and demand in present trade market.2. Based on data from 2000 to 2013 of China’s manufacturing industry, TFP growth and the efficiency of industrial innovation is calculated. Before this, the study has solved difficulties from data gaps caused by difference of the statistic standard. The conclusion shows that technology progress is playing a larger role in the rate of change TFP; The rate of technological transformations is not moving as fast as has been expected. As independent variables, data information on technological progress efficiency is used in the technology progress realization index.3.The study proposes a new concept and builds a model named technology progress realization index. Based on first class indicators from three aspects, including technology progress input targets, technology progress output targets and technology progress efficiency targets, the index is established. After measuring, the results show that the degree of technology progress output efficiency brings up the the change of technology progress realization index which is been less affected by the degree of technology progress input efficiency. Among 2000 and 2013, technology progress realization index achieves 17.93 percent growth; The average degree of technology progress input efficiency presentes " inefficiency " when the average degree of technology progress output efficiency rises 29.84 percent. It indicates that the degree of technology progress output efficiency contributes more to the technology progress realization index. Then, from 2000 to 2013, the number of years technology progress realization index presentes "efficiency" is nine, at the same time, other three years with technology progress risk show "inefficiency". The third point, two technology progress efficiency targets have not significant impact upon technology progress realization index.
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