| The investment construction is an important economic construction activity in China. With the ever-growing fever in investment construction field, the investment construction programme feature greatly in group, large scale, industrialism, professionalism and technicalization. From tens of thousands of projects, many investment construction programme will become the hotspot of the modern project management. Recently, as a new way of management, programme management develops rapidly and plays an active role in China even if it is still facing many complicated chain risk problems. Therefore, how to identify, analyze and assess the chain risk to develop risk simulation research is the major subject of this paper. Investigation indicates that programme risk management of investment construction in China’s economic development has become an important research subject in the field of economic management.Based on the theoretical research, study of the published literature and personal practices, the author systematically discusses the definition, generation, features, adverse effects and risk transmission principle of programme risk and programme chain risk; differentiates the risk of programme and the risk of every single project; specifically researches on identification and analysis of the chain risk of investment construction programme both qualitively and quantitively. According to the questionnaire and statistical analysis, it summarizes five chain risk categories and the first ten chain risk factors that affect the investment construction programme in China. By learning from the complicated system theory and System Dynamics (SD) method, the SD method is used in programme risk management to build up and simulate chain risk index system model based on system method and chain risk system model based on SD. The system dynamics simulation, Monte Carlo simulation and structure simulation are applied together in modeling and programme chain risk simulation, the valuable achievements of which could provide new research methods and management ideas for the governmental departments working on investment construction programme management, investment construction unit, programme manager, risk manager and the other related research personnel. This paper hereby goes to a result:the chain risk system model based on system method and SD method is scientific and practical, and the simulation study on investment construction programme chain rick system model by comprehensive applying of system dynamics simulation, Monte Carlo simulation and structure simulation method is significant both in theory and practice.The research achievements are as follows:1. Considering its potential harmfulness and destructiveness, the chain risk, which widely exists in all kinds of investment construction programme, becomes the key point to decide whether the investment decisions of programme can succeed or not.2. The chain risk of programme, which belongs to a complicated system risk management, mainly lies on its multi-targets, multi-phases and multi-decision-makers.3. The programme chain risk management is more important than the general programme risk management. According to the questionnaire and statistical analysis, the five chain risk categories include programme investment risk, programme time limit risk, programme environment risk, programme management risk and programme investigation and design risk; the first ten chain risk factors are:(1) economic risks (eg. financial crisis, inflation, market turbulence, partially funded or funds shortage); (2) decision-making risk due to lack of feasibility study; (3) investigation and design risk (design errors and misses, poor quality or inadequate design depth); (4) natural environment risk (change of the natural environment, resources, energy sources, etc after the investment decision); (5) decision risk caused by wrong selection of the programme site; (6) significant environmental risk (significant objective factors, like natural disasters, land acquisition and demolition, bad social environment, "Achievement Project" that greatly affects the progress and budget control); (7) major management risk (the risk caused by the non-standard management of the owner, construction unit and the supervision unit, the risk of the labor-material machine, and financial risk); (8) technical risk (the design change risk, eg. if the change is great or frequent, or the construction party asks for over many unreasonable changes of the design, or if the technical proposal fails); (9) quality safe management risk (if there are some big quality and safe management problems and hidden troubles); (10) price and cost risk (rises of the price and abnormal budget fluctuation). In this paper, six chain risk identification methods are explained and inter-compared. 4. The author summarizes two chain risk qualitive analysis methods and six quantitive analysis methods. As each method has its advantages and disadvantages and different field of application, this paper mainly focuses on the features, applications and steps of quantitve risk analysis so that similar risk analysis can take it as a reference.5. How to effectively analyze and assess programme chain risk? How to construct programme chain risk assessment model? And how to simulate chain risk with the aid of the computer? These are the difficulties in front of the investment construction programme risk management. In this paper, the chain risk index system model based on system method and the chain risk system model based on SD are built to study the internal operation law of the chain risk and to help establish appropriate risk treatment proposal. With respect to the risk simulation, the Monte Carlo Simulation is used in the investment decision phase, the simulation of which indicates:not all the NPV> 0 investment construction programme can be accepted. The coefficient of variation, probability that NPV<0, expected value and the standard deviation, etc should also be considered together. During the construction phase, the finite element analysis and structural simulation model are applied to the programme where there might be chain risk. Step by step checks and risk assessment are made to meet the quality, safety and technical specification requirement of our country and to cut off the sources and development of the chain risk.All in all, this paper aims to solve problems in the investment construction programme risk management, to build up appropriate system model which can be used in the investment construction programme chain risk analysis and assessment in China, to provide new management research method and eliminate or reduce waste of the social resources and funds caused by the adverse effect of the risks; and to help in improving the investment construction management and the consistent and stable economic and social development in China.
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